Royal LePage: Tougher mortgage conditions in 2024 failed to ‘chill’ home prices near Quebec’s ski resorts
The median price of a single-family detached property in Quebec’s winter recreational markets rose 4.9% year over year in the first nine months of the year
- Of the ten Quebec markets analyzed, four recorded single-family home price increases of more than 10% year over year.
- The Stoneham and Lac-Beauport ski region saw the greatest price appreciation for single-family detached properties (20.9%) in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
- The median price of condominiums in the Mont Saint-Sauveur area posted a 17.1% year-over-year increase, the highest in the province.
- Royal LePage forecasts the price of a single-family detached home in Quebec’s winter recreational markets will increase by 6.0% in 2025, expecting interest rates to continue to slide and extend household purchasing power.
MONTREAL, November 14, 2024 – According to the Royal LePage® 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report, which analyzes the residential real estate markets around Quebec’s major ski areas, prices and transaction activity remained on the rise this year, despite the impact of higher mortgage rates in the first six months of the year. The first cut in the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate in June managed to give buyers some breathing room, while boosting sales of recreational properties.
“Despite uncertain economic conditions in 2024, Quebec’s recreational real estate markets have shown solid price appreciation, with increases ranging from moderate to strong, barring a few exceptions,” said Dominic St-Pierre, Executive Vice President, Business Development, Royal LePage. “Although a slowdown in activity and prices was anticipated due to high mortgage costs, real estate demand in winter resort regions persists and is keeping prices up, supported by population growth and urban sprawl.”
Provincial overview of activity and prices
The higher interest rate environment in 2024 certainly made some buyers in the province’s recreational markets hesitate, as it did in urban markets, while many were hoping for more favourable mortgage conditions ahead. However, this did not have an impact on activity levels. According to the report, the number of single-family detached property transactions in the markets analyzed rose by 7.9% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year. At the same time, condominium sales fell slightly by 1.1% year over year.
St-Pierre added that, in some cases, sellers were sticking to their prices, which resulted in extending days on market
The median price of a single-family detached home rose 4.9% in the first nine months of the year, compared to the same period in 2023, to $521,300, reflecting a more timid appreciation than in the previous year. For condominiums, the median price fell 5.1% over the same period to $370,600.
Of the 10 ski areas surveyed, only two saw the median price of single-family homes decline. Prices for single-family homes around Mont Sutton (Sutton, Brome, Lac-Brome) fell by 17.9% year over year to $575,000. Real estate markets surrounding Le Massif de Charlevoix (Baie-Saint-Paul, Les Éboulements, Isle-aux-Coudres, Petite-Rivière-Saint-François, Saint-Hilarion, Saint-Urbain) also saw a decline in the first nine months of 2024, falling 17.9% year over year to $327,500.
As for condominiums, the opposite trend was observed. Of the five markets where this segment is sufficiently large, three showed a decline in median prices. Near the slopes of Mont-Tremblant, the median price of a condominium fell 13.1% year over year in the first nine months of 2024, to $391,000. In Bromont, there was a similar decline of 14.6%, with a median price of $474,200, while condominiums on the outskirts of Mont Sainte-Anne fell 12.5% over the same period, to $220,000.
Legislative uncertainty and tax impact: a turning point for secondary residence owners
Last April, when the federal budget was tabled, the Government of Canada announced an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate applicable to the sale of real estate that is not a primary residence, rising from 50% to 66.67% on the portion of capital gains realized in a year in excess of $250,000. The day after the announcement, the Quebec government followed suit by harmonizing its tax system with Ottawa.[1]
“This announcement caught secondary residence owners off guard,” said St-Pierre. “In most of the province’s recreational markets, many owners raised questions about the possibility of putting their properties up for sale, and our brokers helped them with their financial analysis. However, the period between the preliminary announcement and the new regulations coming into effect left interested parties with too little time to take advantage, since the deed of sale would have had to be signed before June 25.”
To date, although the measure has been announced and legislative proposals tabled, the final regulations have not yet been adopted. Many analysts and players in the real estate market are keeping a close eye on developments in this matter, especially in a context where future federal elections could change the game.
“It’s crucial for homeowners to keep abreast of these developments, because a change of government could alter or even cancel the increase in the inclusion rate,” stressed St-Pierre, pointing out that these decisions could influence the financial choices of many Quebecers.
Price Forecast
While higher borrowing rates have failed to cool real estate demand in major resort markets, the Bank of Canada’s manoeuvres to stimulate the economy by cutting its key lending rate could have a snowball effect on activity around Quebec’s ski resorts and beyond.
“Following four consecutive cuts in the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate, buyers in recreational property markets can resume their search, more confident that their situation will continue to improve,” said St-Pierre. “Although a steep increase in prices is not in the cards, we can easily imagine that 2025 will see property prices rise above 2024,” he continued.
According to Royal LePage, the price of a single-family detached home near the province’s top skiable peaks will continue to climb, rising 6.0% to $552,578 over the next 12 months. This forecast is based on the expectation that interest rates will continue to trend downwards in 2025.
“The increase in inventory seen in 2024 should continue into 2025, giving buyers more choice and increasing their bargaining power. However, if supply remains insufficient relative to demand in coveted locations, this could limit the ability of higher inventory to keep a lid on price gains,” he concluded.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Mont-Tremblant (Mont-Tremblant, Mont-Blanc, La Conception)
During the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family detached home in the Mont-Tremblant area increased 10.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2023, to reach $576,000, with sales recording a 5.9 per cent increase. The median price of a condominium in the region fell 13.1 per cent over the same period to $391,000. Sales in this segment of the market rose by 2.0 per cent.
“Property enquiries surged in the second half of the year in Tremblant, as the Bank of Canada adjusted its key lending rate downwards. However, this renewed interest did not translate into a significant increase in sales,” explained Corina Enoaie, manager and residential and commercial real estate broker with Mont-Tremblant Real Estate, a division of Royal LePage. “The majority of recent transactions in the region involve recreational properties rather than investments. Mont-Tremblant remains a valuable choice for local and international buyers, especially as the region is exempt from the ban on residential property purchases by non-Canadians.”
Enoaie adds that the Mont-Tremblant region has adapted quickly to the emergence of short-term rental platforms. As an internationally renowned tourist destination, some rules and restrictions on rentals have been in place for several years. These carefully crafted regulations are designed to preserve the local quality of life, while allowing investors to benefit from a clear and well-defined framework for renting out recreational properties.
For those looking for property slopeside, the current minimum price threshold is approximately $1,400,000 for a single-family detached home and $150,000 plus taxes for a condominium (condo-hotel).
Enoaie has also noted a considerable increase in sales of luxury properties in the Mont-Tremblant area this year. For 2025, she expects prices to rise steadily.
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of single-family detached homes in the region will rise 8.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Mont Saint-Sauveur (Saint-Sauveur, Morin-Heights, Piedmont)
In the first nine months of the year, the residential real estate markets near Mont Saint-Sauveur saw positive momentum in sales and prices. In the region, the median price of a single-family home rose 3.4 per cent over the same period in 2023 to $610,000. Meanwhile, sales rose by 9.3 per cent. The median price of a condominium in the region also posted an increase, climbing 17.1 per cent compared to the first nine months of 2023 to $415,000. Sales in this segment rose 7.6 per cent.
“The price increase for single-family homes in the Mont Saint-Sauveur area was not as strong as it was at this time last year, but it remained steady, which shows that the appeal of the Laurentians’ real estate market has endured,” said Éric Léger, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Humania E. L. “Inventory of properties has improved, providing a better buying experience for buyers, while home values remained healthy, allowing owners to maintain equity in their real estate portfolio.”
To explain the considerable price appreciation in the condominium segment, Léger attributes it primarily to affordability.
“During the period of higher interest rates in 2024, some aspiring buyers opted for condo ownership rather than waiting until they could afford a single-family home, especially since the gap between the two property types has widened in recent years,” he noted. “That said, this increased demand has inevitably put upward pressure on condominium prices. I would also say that, unlike more urban environments, condominiums in Saint-Sauveur are well located, close to services and ski slopes, which makes them all the more attractive.”
For those looking for a property slopeside in Saint-Sauveur, the current minimum price threshold is approximately $800,000 for a single-family home and $600,000 for a condominium.
“I see the Bank of Canada’s efforts to stimulate the economy as a good thing for the real estate market north of Montreal,” said Léger. ‘I’m expecting an additional surge in demand from buyers who will enjoy greater purchasing power. This will contribute to a moderate rise in prices,” he continued.
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home in the region will increase 7.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Val Saint-Côme et Mont Garceau (Saint-Côme, Saint-Donat)
In the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family home near Val Saint-Côme and Mont Garceau rose by a modest 2.1% over the same period in 2023, to $446,000, while sales contracted by 12.9%.
For those looking for a property on the slopes, the minimum price threshold is around $400,000 for a single-family home.
“The Lanaudière winter recreational markets remained relatively stable in 2024,” said Éric Fugère, residential real estate broker with Royal LePage Habitations. “Although mortgage conditions improved, they did not create any substantial movement in real estate demand. Buyers have become more demanding and consistent in their decisions, especially if the posted price of the property they are interested in is not in line with market value,” he added.
According to Fugère, mining exploration activities in the region could disrupt the resort real estate market in years to come if they obtain the necessary environmental approvals to go ahead.
“At present, mining exploration activities are generating a great deal of opposition from local residents, who are complaining about the noise pollution caused by the comings and goings of trucks and the risk of environmental impact,” he said. “Some are already complaining about the potential contamination of a number of lakes and the destruction of wetlands, which could have a serious impact on property owners and the attractiveness of the region. It is essential that the region’s communities are able to preserve their living environment and that mining activities are carried out in a respectful manner without compromising the lives of local residents.”
In the shorter term, Fugère expects property prices to increase slightly in 2025, as buyers and sellers continue to ‘play hardball’ in their negotiations.
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of single-family detached homes in the Val-St-Côme and Mont Garceau markets will increase by 3.0% over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Bromont, Mont Sutton (Sutton, Brome et Lac Brome) et Mont Orford (Orford et Magog)
In the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family home near Val Saint-Côme and Mont Garceau rose by a modest 2.1 per cent over the same period in 2023, to $446,000, while sales contracted by 12.9 per cent.
For those looking for a property slopeside, the minimum price threshold is approximately $400,000 for a single-family home.
“The Lanaudière winter recreational markets remained relatively stable in 2024,” said Éric Fugère, residential real estate broker with Royal LePage Habitations. “Although mortgage conditions improved, they did not create any substantial movement in real estate demand. Buyers have become more demanding and resolute in their decisions, especially if the list price of the property they are interested in is not in line with market value,” he added.
According to Fugère, mining exploration activities in the region could disrupt the resort real estate market in years to come if they obtain the necessary environmental approvals to go ahead.
“At present, mining exploration activities are generating a great deal of opposition from local residents, who are complaining about the noise pollution caused by the comings and goings of trucks, as well as the risk of environmental impact,” he said. “Some are already voicing concerns about the potential contamination of a number of lakes and the destruction of wetlands, which could have a serious impact on property owners and the attractiveness of the region. It is essential that local communities are able to preserve their way of life and that mining activities are carried out in a respectful manner without intruding on the daily life of local residents.”
In the shorter term, Fugère expects property prices to increase slightly in 2025, as buyers and sellers continue to ‘play hardball’ in their negotiations.
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home in the Val-St-Côme and Mont Garceau markets will increase 3.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Mont Sainte-Anne (Beaupré, Sainte-Anne-de-Beaupré, Saint-Ferréol-les-Neiges, Saint-Joachim)
Of the three regions analyzed in the Eastern Townships, the Bromont region saw the strongest increase in the median price of single-family homes, rising 13.8 per cent between January 1 and September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, to reach $718,000. Sales in the region were down 4.0 per cent in this segment. For its part, the Mont Orford region recorded a moderate increase of 5.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $539,000. The median price of a single-family detached home near the Mont Sutton ski area fell by 17.9 per cent year over year in the first nine months of the year to $575,000, a decrease of $125,000. Single-family detached home sales in the regions of Mont Orford and Mont Sutton increased 13.4 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively.
In the condominium segment, the median price near Mont Orford increased 3.2 per cent, while it declined by 14.6 per cent year over year in Bromont, to $320,000 and $474,200 respectively. Condominium sales in Mont Orford rose 10.7 per cent, while they fell by 19.4 per cent in Bromont.
“In the Eastern Townships’ winter recreational markets, demand fluctuated on the fringes of an uncertain economy, but property prices remained on the rise in most locations,” said Véronique Boucher, residential real estate broker with Royal LePage Au Sommet. “First-time buyers are slowly returning to the market, confident that interest rates will continue to decline slightly and make way for greater affordability. Days on market have been getting longer, but the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate announcements provide some hope that activity will pick up in the fourth and final quarter of the year.”
For those looking for property slopeside, the current minimum price threshold is approximately $950,000 for a single-family home in Bromont, while it stands at $800,000 in Mont Orford and Mont Sutton. A condominium by the slopes starts at $450,000 in Orford and $550,000 in Bromont.
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home will increase 7.0 per cent in Bromont, 5.0 per cent in Mont Sutton and 4.0 per cent in Mont Orford over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Stoneham/Lac-Beauport (Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury, Lac Delage, St-Gabriel-de-Valcartier, Lac-Beauport)
In the first nine months of the year, the Stoneham/Lac-Beauport ski area saw the strongest increase in the median price of a single-family detached home in the province of Quebec, climbing 20.9 per cent year over year to $555,000. Sales also rose by 14.4 per cent over the same period.
“With a relatively stable inventory of properties for sale, the Stoneham/Lac-Beauport ski area has seen a considerable increase in the price of single-family homes this year,” explained Michèle Fournier, chartered real estate broker and vice-president, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “What’s more, the region is attracting a growing number of professionals looking to settle here permanently, which is contributing to strong real estate demand.”
For those looking for a property slopeside, the minimum price today is approximately $600,000 for a single-family detached home.
Fournier expects the decline in interest rates will drive price appreciation in 2025, while consumers will see their purchasing power grow.
“For a relatively large proportion of the population, as financial capacity increases, so does the desire to afford more,” she said. “On the one hand, buyers who have been on the sidelines will see this as an opportunity to get on the property ladder. On the other, existing homeowners may be tempted to upgrade by moving to a property that offers more space and a better quality of life.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home in the Stoneham/Lac-Beauport market will increase 10.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Massif de Charlevoix (Charlevoix-ouest) (Baie-Saint-Paul, Les Éboulements, Isle-aux-Coudres, Petite-Rivière-Saint-François, Saint-Hilarion, Saint-Urbain)
Over the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family detached home near Le Massif de Charlevoix fell by 17.9 per cent year over year to $327,500, while sales rose 12.1 per cent over the same period. This is a stark contrast to the sharp rise in prices seen in 2023.
For those looking for a property slopeside, the minimum price threshold today is approximately $450,000 for a single-family detached home.
“The period of higher interest rates pushed prices down in the Charlevoix-Ouest region as sellers clung to higher market values from the pandemic era,” reports Denis Lavoie, residential and commercial real estate broker at Royal LePage Blanc & Noir. “This has led to price adjustments and more negotiation between buyers and sellers this year.”
However, Lavoie expects a more dynamic transaction period that will lead to a stabilization of prices over the coming months.
Royal LePage expects the median price of a single-family detached home in the region to increase 3.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
Mont Grand Fonds (Charlevoix-est) (La Malbaie, Clermont, Saint-Siméon, Saint-Aimé-des-Lacs, Notre-Dame-des-Monts, Sainte-Irénée, Baie Sainte-Catherine)
In the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family detached home near Mont Grand Fonds de Charlevoix rose 5.9 per cent year over year to $250,000. Sales were also up over the same period, increasing by 2.2 per cent.
“Upcoming investments in the municipality of Charlevoix-est should stimulate activity and property prices in the coming year,” noted Denis Lavoie, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Blanc & Noir. “The construction of a new hospital, which will help create new jobs, combined with real estate investments in the region, are among the real estate demand factors that will help push prices moderately higher in 2025.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home in the markets surrounding Mont Grand Fonds will increase 5.0 per cent over the next 12 months.
Table – Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report (Province of Quebec): rlp.ca/table-2024-winter-recreational-report-QC
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About the Royal LePage Winter Recreational Properties Report
The Royal LePage 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report compiles outlooks, data and forecasts from 10 popular ski regions in Quebec. Median price and sales data were compiled through Centris and analyzed by Royal LePage for the period from January 1 to September 30 in 2024 and for the same period in 2023. Data availability is based on a transactional threshold and on available regional data using the standard housing types examined in the report. Price data for 2023 may vary from the Royal LePage 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report due to updated transaction data from local real estate boards and a modified timeframe.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc.
For more information:
Jillianne Gignac
Hill & Knowlton pour le compte de Royal LePage
Jillianne.Gignac@hillandknowlton.com
514 929-6170
[1] Gouvernement du Québec – Le gouvernement harmonise le régime fiscal québécois avec certaines mesures fédérales, 18 avril 2024 (available in French only)
