Despite economic uncertainty, Royal LePage® forecasts a 7.0% increase in aggregate home prices in Quebec in 2025
Quebec City expected to see the strongest price appreciation in the country, driven by sustained demand and limited inventory.
Highlights:
- Home prices in the Quebec City region will lead the country and province, with a projected increase of 11.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024.
- Among Canada’s largest urban centres, Greater Montreal aggregate home price appreciation (6.5%) expected to outpace greater regions of Toronto (5.0%) and Vancouver (4.0%) next year.
- The incoming Trump presidency’s trade policies and Canadian federal elections could introduce fluctuations in the economy and the real estate market.
- Although housing starts are on the rise, the moratoriums imposed in cities such as Sherbrooke, Lévis and soon Gatineau, are limiting the response to growing demand.
- Households looking to buy a property in 2025 should benefit from more advantageous mortgage rates, while financial institutions will be called upon to align their prime rate with the central bank’s overnight rate.
MONTREAL, December 5, 2024 – Following a year marked by a shift in Canadian monetary policy and four consecutive cuts to the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate, Quebec’s real estate market is set to experience further property price appreciation in 2025, as buyers across all property segments benefit from improved purchasing power. However, factors that are still difficult to predict, including the economic and geopolitical impacts of Donald Trump’s impending presidency and the upcoming Canadian federal election, could put a damper on the province’s economy. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate[1] price of a home in the province of Quebec is set to rise 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024, to $599,307.
“Resilience is what defined the Quebec real estate market in 2024,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president, business development, Royal LePage. “While some of the country’s largest markets experienced a period of price correction or stagnation, Quebec’s major urban markets continued to see significant property price growth in the face of still-present inventory shortages, with the Quebec City region leading the way. In our crystal ball for 2025, we see upward pressure on prices to continue, with a gradual return to long-term historical norms. Competition is expected to be particularly strong in the first half of the year, when we’ll see most of the price increases, paving the way for an early spring market.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home and condominium in the province will increase 8.0% and 6.0% to reach $672,516 and $474,350, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.[2]
Quebec City poised to stand out once again in the 2025 real estate market
Of the five markets included in the forecast, Quebec City should maintain its top ranking, with the aggregate home price expected to rise 11.0% to $442,113 in the final quarter of 2025. This is also the strongest price growth forecast among major regions in Canada.
“As the province’s capital city, the Quebec City region has typically maintained a trend of limited growth in property prices, with no major fluctuations. Now, the pandemic has reversed the trend, making this market a star in recent years, and particularly in 2024 when other regions were experiencing a slowdown in both activity and prices. With borrowing costs lower today and a still-too-large shortfall of available properties, we expect price pressure to be higher in 2025 in this region,” said St-Pierre.
Factors that will influence Quebec real estate demand in 2025
With geopolitical issues south of the border and in Canada, combined with persistent housing shortages and a growing number of measures to increase access to home ownership for first-time buyers, there are many factors that will shape the province’s real estate market in 2025.
1. Economic resilience and the impact of Canada-U.S. relations
In 2024, the Quebec labour market showed notable resilience, with unemployment rates falling below the national average. In 2025, the province is forecasting moderate growth to its GDP, aided by continued investment in infrastructure and innovation. What’s more, the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate, which is expected to continue declining into 2025, will stimulate GDP growth by reducing the cost of borrowing for both individuals and businesses. This renewed confidence should also translate into increased real estate activity, particularly among first-time buyers and investors.
“While Quebec continues to demonstrate great economic resilience, trade issues with the U.S. and the 2025 Canadian federal election could introduce some volatility,” notes St-Pierre. “Talk of possible tariff increases by the new Trump administration raises questions, but we believe that hasty action would be unlikely, given the economic interdependence between the two countries. In Canada, election debates could influence housing policies and budget priorities. Despite these uncertainties, Quebec’s real estate market should remain buoyant, supported by stable demand and solid economic fundamentals.”
2. Housing starts and development challenges: when rapid demographic growth forces a pause
After seeing record declines in 2023, housing starts data for 2024 shows an improvement that should continue into 2025 in most Quebec real estate markets. However, this gradual uptick in supply will not be enough to fill the inventory gaps accumulated since the pandemic, especially since new construction will be concentrated in rental units and not in the resale market. This persistent shortage will continue to put upward pressure on property prices, particularly in urban centers like Montreal and Quebec City.
In response to rapid population growth and sustained real estate demand, municipalities such as Sherbrooke, Lévis and Gatineau have introduced – or are planning to implement – a moratorium on new residential construction. These decisions are aimed at rethinking future infrastructure needs and improved urban development, in the face of growing pressure on municipal services and transportation networks.
These measures come at a time when many regions, historically unprepared for strong internal migration, are experiencing the effects of an accelerated urban exodus since the pandemic. The intention of the moratorium is to give municipalities the time they need to adjust their water management, road and utilities capacities, while preserving residents’ quality of life.
“Cities like Lévis and Gatineau, which were unprepared to absorb this demand, must now review their approach to ensure sustainable development. This strategic pause could also temporarily slow residential construction in these areas, increasing pressure on neighbouring markets,” mentioned St-Pierre.
3. Relief for first-time buyers welcomed, but not without consequences
In 2024, the federal government deployed a series of measures to facilitate access to home ownership and stimulate housing construction. Among these, the extension of mortgage amortizations to 30 years for first-time buyers of residential and new construction homes, the increase of the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) threshold to $60,000 and the extension of the grace period for its repayment to five years, should give some breathing room to many buyers previously shut out of the market.
Additionally, the ceiling on insured mortgages has been raised from $1 million to $1.5 million this year, enabling more Canadians to qualify for a mortgage with a down payment of less than 20% and making it easier to buy property in an ever-changing real estate market. This measure is likely to have a limited effect in Quebec, benefiting buyers in more expensive markets such as Toronto and Vancouver.
The GST exemption for new rental properties and the identification of under-utilized public land for housing construction should also stimulate supply. These measures, combined with a favourable interest rate environment, will give Quebec households additional leeway to enter the market or reposition themselves in more competitive segments.
“The federal government’s intervention to relax mortgage rules was necessary to improve access to home ownership, particularly in a market where affordability remains a major challenge. However, a measure such as extending amortization to 30 years, though it spreads monthly payments out over more time and therefore lowers carrying costs, also increases the amount of total interest paid over time. On the other hand, measures that stimulate demand rather than supply run the risk of pushing up property prices, thereby diminishing their effect. It will be crucial for Quebec households to carefully assess their debt capacity in order to take advantage of these new opportunities without compromising their long-term financial health,” points out St-Pierre.
4. Impact of immigration thresholds on real estate demand
In 2024, Quebec announced a revision of its immigration thresholds, aiming to welcome between 60,000 and 70,000 new permanent residents annually starting in 2025. This increase, although below federal targets, reflects the province’s desire to meet labour market needs while preserving its distinct character. On the real estate front, this increased influx of newcomers is expected to put further pressure on housing demand, particularly in large urban areas like Montreal and Quebec City, where infrastructure is already under strain. On the other hand, a moratorium currently imposed on two permanent immigration programs until June 30, 2025, could ease pressure on the Quebec real estate market by reducing the number of new arrivals in the short term.
“Increased immigration thresholds represent an economic growth opportunity for Quebec, but they will also accentuate the challenges facing the real estate market,” said St-Pierre. “While these new residents will contribute to various sectors of the economy, their arrival will require a rapid response in terms of housing construction and urban development to prevent excessive price gains and an erosion of affordability,” he concluded.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Montreal Area
In the Greater Montreal region, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $655,082. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to rise 7.5% to $750,780, while that of a condominium is expected to increase 6.0% to $507,210.
“The Greater Montreal real estate market recorded healthy growth in activity and prices in 2024 after 2023 was characterized by below-average transactions,” said Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker at Royal LePage Tendance. “This recovery, spurred by lower interest rates, has materialized in an uneven, regionalized manner. Some areas such as Villeray, Verdun and Longueuil have seen strong demand and rising prices, contrasting with marginal demand in other regions where the housing stock is not as new, and thus, less coveted. The increase in inventory, although limited by neighbourhood, has helped to rebalance supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the luxury segment and for upgraded properties.”
Overall, real estate activity bodes well for the coming year in the Greater Montreal Area. According to Lefrançois, economic indicators point to a healthy but measured real estate market in 2025. Good opportunities could emerge for both sellers and buyers, as Canadian financial institutions adjust to the cuts announced by the central bank.
“One of the reasons we haven’t yet seen a mass return of buyers after four consecutive cuts to the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate is that the chartered bank prime rate has been slow to follow suit,” explains Lefrançois. “This rate, which currently stands at 5.95% – compared with the key rate of 3.75% – will have to come down over the next few months, which should give a good boost to first-time buyers in particular.”
Despite this glimmer of hope, the geopolitical uncertainty hanging over Canada, combined with an economy weakened by falling productivity,[3] could notably complicate the dynamics of the job market, and indirectly slow down the real estate market.
“Even before he is sworn in, newly-elected U.S. president Donald Trump is suggesting that his decisions could radically transform the global political and economic landscape, placing a potential threat over international relations and the current balance,” says Lefrançois. “Canada’s economic relationship with its southern neighbour is interdependent, and if Mr. Trump’s recent statements prove to be true, it will pose obstacles for our economy, and to the real estate market, particularly in Canadian cities that rely heavily on exports to the United States.”
Lefrançois adds that Canada’s balance of power with the United States could also change, in the wake of a federal election due to take place by October next year.
Alongside the economic issues that will affect the real estate market in the short- to medium-term, Lefrançois also notes a paradigm shift following the pandemic. After registering an inter-regional migration deficit following the exodus to the regions marked by social distancing and the emergence of remote work, a growing volume of buyers are now making a return to the city. At the same time, with access to property a major hurdle for first-time buyers, some find themselves having to leave the island to find a property within their budget.
“The programs put in place by governments to encourage access to home ownership do offer a helping hand to first-time buyers. However, in the absence of new construction, these initiatives only increase the number of potential buyers without increasing supply, creating upward pressure on prices. In this context, many families have set their sights on more remote areas to become homeowners,” recalls Lefrançois.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
Quebec City
In the Quebec City region, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 11.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, reaching $442,113. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 12.0% to $476,896, and condominiums are expected to rise by 7.0%, amounting to $315,222.
“The Quebec City market stands out from the rest of Quebec and Canada, marked by supply that is clearly insufficient to meet demand among all property types. According to our forecasts, this inventory imbalance should continue next year, resulting in a sustained increase in property values,” said Michèle Fournier, vice president and real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “However, it’s important to note that Quebec City remains one of the most affordable markets in the country, providing access to property for many first-time buyers.”
Fournier points out that this lack of inventory is due to a combination of factors. While the resale market already offers a very limited number of active listings, new real estate developments are mostly focused on rental units in the region, adding upward pressure to resale prices. Buyers are also facing a relatively new phenomenon: aging in place. With falling interest rates, more buyers are competing for the same volume of available properties as residents opt to stay in their homes for longer periods of time.
“Advances in public health are enabling seniors to stay in their own homes longer, which is easing the strain on the public health system, but further reducing the supply of real estate,” Fournier points out. “When health permits, keeping one’s home rather than moving into rental housing or new construction is less costly and often more rewarding. This trend towards ‘aging in place’, with personalized services, is set to continue over the coming years as access to similar programs expands.”
Although figures for the City of Lévis are not included in Royal LePage’s statistics, the recently announced moratorium on new construction in that city could have an impact on the real estate market in the greater Quebec City area. By limiting the addition of new properties in Lévis, this decision could increase pressure on neighbouring markets, notably Quebec City, where demand already far exceeds available supply.
“The announcement of the moratorium in Lévis risks creating a domino effect on surrounding real estate markets, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand,” Fournier explains. “Buyers who can’t find properties in Lévis could redirect their search to Quebec City, which would have an impact on prices that are already under pressure in the region.”
With the shortage of properties expected to continue in 2025, Fournier recommends that buyers prepare now and surround themselves with experts such as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, accountant or tax specialist to assess their current and future purchasing power. She also reiterates the need to obtain a mortgage pre-qualification before submitting an offer to purchase, to maximize one’s chances of success, since the market remains highly competitive.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
Gatineau
In Gatineau, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024 to $483,996. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to rise 7.5% to $593,938, while the median price of a condominium is expected to increase 2.5% to $343,478.
“After a moderate level of activity at the beginning of the year, the Gatineau market gained momentum, recording a high volume of transactions in the fourth quarter. While the gradual drop in interest rates did have a positive effect on buyer confidence, the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis-point reduction in October seems to have really stimulated real estate demand and set the stage for strong activity in 2025,” forecasts Martin Simard, residential and commercial real estate broker, Sirois-Simard Team, Royal LePage Vallée de l’Outaouais. “Although prices have risen, Gatineau’s real estate market remains relatively affordable among Canada’s other major markets, and compared to the neighbouring city of Ottawa. This, combined with a desirable quality of life, is attracting a growing number of buyers from across the Ottawa River, contributing to the strength of the Gatineau market.”
Simard points out that single-family properties are highly sought-after and will continue to be in 2025, particularly for listings in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range. He adds that new condominium legislation, better known as Bill 16, has increased condominium fees, reducing demand for this type of property and creating additional pressure on the single-family market. At the same time, competition in the Gatineau market could be exacerbated by the implementation of a moratorium on development in the coming year, although no official announcement has been made as of yet.
“Ville de Gatineau is currently considering imposing a moratorium on residential and commercial development in certain outlying areas. While this pause is necessary in order to reflect on the future of real estate development and infrastructure, we are already facing a housing shortage and this temporary policy will further slow the creation of supply. This will likely result in higher demand and price appreciation in neighbouring neighborhoods,” Simard points out.
Among the things to look out for in 2025, Simard notes that Outaouais is a market sensitive to federal politics, housing thousands of public servants. Canada’s next federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025 at the latest, which could lead to delayed transactions.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
Sherbrooke
In Sherbrooke, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024, reaching $409,810. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to see an 8.0% increase to $449,820.
“While 2024 was characterized by a renewed confidence on the part of buyers following numerous interest rate cuts, 2025 will be marked by a shortage of available properties in Sherbrooke, putting upward pressure on home prices,” predicts Jean-François Bérubé, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Évolution EB. “The Estrie region has had positive net migration since the pandemic, notably for its proximity to nature and the quality of its educational institutions. With affordability at the centre of consumer concerns, many families are still considering moving to the region, which offers an accessible median property price compared to other markets.”
While Sherbrooke is benefiting from significant inter-regional migration with the advent of remote work and the realization of new projects such as the Centre mère-enfant de l’Hôpital Fleurimont, Bérubé notes that this craze will exacerbate an inventory shortage already plaguing the region.
“The imbalance between supply and demand will be a key issue over the coming months. On the one hand, lower interest rates have had a positive impact on real estate activity, increasing the pool of potential buyers and their purchasing power. On the other hand, the city of Sherbrooke is facing a shortfall of residential real estate development, fueled by restrictive municipal policies,” notes Bérubé. “Ultimately, in the absence of new construction, competition will become fierce for single-family properties, and first-time buyers with smaller down payments risk being squeezed out of the market again.”
Despite these obstacles, home ownership remains a priority for many households in the region. Bérubé notes that a growing proportion of homebuyers benefit from the support of a family member to come up with a down payment. Many baby boomers want their children to be able to own their own home, and are offering their financial support to make this happen.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
Trois-Rivières
In Trois-Rivières, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024, reaching $370,448. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to rise 5.0% to $400,890.
“Following the significant increases in real estate prices seen during the pandemic, the Trois-Rivières market experienced a period of stabilization, particularly towards the end of this year. The state of the market suggests a healthy level of activity for 2025, and we anticipate a modest increase in prices,” says Isabelle Lecour, residential real estate broker, Royal LePage Centre. “Compared to other markets in the province, our region can count on a significant number of new residential projects being started, mainly single-family properties and semi-detached homes, and the outlook for 2025 is very favourable. This construction is essential to support the growing demand for real estate in Trois-Rivières.”
Lecour points out that the Trois-Rivières real estate market has changed dramatically in just a few short years. A significant number of residents from Montreal and Quebec City have moved to the region to enjoy the lifestyle, stimulating demand for single-family properties. The development of industrial projects on the South Shore has also contributed to the emergence of new areas such as Bécancour. Despite this rapidly changing real estate landscape, Trois-Rivières remains the most affordable city in the province of Quebec, according to a recent Royal LePage study,[4] where less than a third (28.5%) of a household’s monthly income would be required to meet a mortgage payment.
The development of the battery industry in Bécancour, which is attracting major investment in the green technology sector, could also play a role in Trois-Rivières’ dynamic real estate market next year.
“The growth of this industrial hub on the South Shore is not only stimulating the local economy, it’s also helping to attract new residents and diversify the job market,” says Lecour. “This influx of skilled workers and their families could maintain strong demand for single-family properties and semi-detached homes in the region, especially near transportation routes linking Bécancour and Trois-Rivières.
“With its lively downtown, proximity to nature and booming job market, Trois-Rivières is an enviable and accessible choice for many families, especially first-time buyers,” adds Lecour. “Even though interest rate cuts have heated up competition, particularly for entry-level properties, median property prices remain affordable compared to other markets.”
According to Lecour, while competition has accelerated in the face of steadily declining interest rates in 2024, buyers have demonstrated increased flexibility in their purchasing criteria. As a result, properties requiring some renovation work could be desirable to first-time buyers in 2025, taking advantage of these opportunities to enter the market.
Royal LePage 2025 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2025-forecast-QC
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About the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast
The Royal LePage forecast provides year-over-year price predictions for the five largest urban markets in the province of Quebec. Provincial median prices are calculated using a weighted average of median prices for the regions studied. Prices presented are based on the Royal LePage House Price Survey, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc.
Media contact:
Jillianne Gignac
Hill & Knowlton for Royal LePage
jillianne.gignac@hillandknowlton.com
514-929-6170
[1]Royal LePage’s aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected.
[2] Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian valuation company. Price forecast reflects Q4 2025 over Q4 2024 projections.
[3]Statistics Canada, Hours worked and labour productivity in the provinces and territories (preliminary), 2023, published May 21, 2024
[4] 4 Quebec cities make the list of Canada’s most affordable housing markets; Montrealers ready to move, June 6, 2024
