The spring market that never was: Canadian real estate remains in prolonged catch-up period as buyers idle on the sidelines
Further interest rate cuts required to increase purchasing power and improve consumer confidence
Second-quarter highlights:
- National aggregate home price rose 1.9% year over year in Q2 2024; up 1.5% over Q1
- Toronto and Vancouver report slower-than-usual market activity this spring as inventory builds, while demand continues to outpace supply in prairie provinces and Quebec
- Quebec City records highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.4%) in Q2 among report’s major regions
- Royal LePage® maintains national year-end forecast with prices expected to increase 9.0% in Q4 2024 over the same period last year
TORONTO, July 11, 2024 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada increased 1.9 per cent year over year to $824,300 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased 1.5 per cent, despite a slowdown in activity in the country’s most expensive markets.
“Canada’s housing market is struggling to find a consistent rhythm, as the last three months clearly demonstrated,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Nationally, home prices rose while the number of properties bought and sold sagged; an unusual dynamic. The silver lining: inventory levels in many regions have climbed materially. This is the closest we’ve been to a balanced market in several years.
“This trend dominates activity in two of the country’s largest and most expensive markets, the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, where sales are down yet prices remain sticky,” Soper continued. “There are exceptions. In the prairie provinces and Quebec, low supply and tight competition persist.”
Despite the Bank of Canada’s move to cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on June 5th, from 5.0 per cent to 4.75 per cent,[2] buyers did not immediately rush back to the market as initially expected.
“This spring, with bank rate cuts highly anticipated, we saw some buyers race to get a deal done ahead of an expected spike in demand. Yet, when that first cut finally occurred in early June, market response was tepid,” said Soper.
“A change in monetary policy drives consumer behaviour in two important ways. Lower rates mean lower monthly payments, opening the door to some families previously shut out of the market. Secondly is the psychological signal broadcast to sidelined buyers that the tide is turning, and that market activity is about to pick up again,” added Soper. “Not surprisingly, the quarter-point cut to the bank rate didn’t substantially improve the affordability picture. As for consumer sentiment, our early year research indicated that only one in ten potential homebuyers would be motivated by a tiny rate drop. The tale the market tells as rate cuts get to the point of a material reduction in the cost of borrowing should be a very different one.”
According to a Royal LePage survey, conducted by Leger earlier this year,[3] 51 per cent of sidelined homebuyers said they would resume their search if interest rates reversed. Ten per cent said a 25-basis-point drop would prompt them to jump back into the market, 18 per cent said they are waiting for a cut of 50 to 100 basis points, and 23 per cent said they need to see a cut of more than 100 basis points before they will consider resuming their search.
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.2 per cent year over year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.6 per cent year over year to $596,500. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8 per cent, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.8 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
The national aggregate home price remains well above pre-pandemic levels. In the second quarter of 2024, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded an increase of 30.8 per cent over the same period in 2019.
“2024 marks the fifth year since the pandemic and post-pandemic rebound began to wreak havoc on real estate prices. Yes, values remain well above 2019 levels, yet a thirty per cent rise in home values spread over five years, or six per cent annually, is approaching long-term norms for Canadian residential property appreciation. The market has a way of correcting mistakes.”
Inflation and interest rates
For the last two years, the national housing market has seen home prices fluctuate between modest declines and increases – with some regional exceptions – as a result of the impacts of higher interest rates. As the Bank of Canada cautiously navigates the delicate balance between lowering the key lending rate and keeping inflation in check, some segments of Canada’s housing market have stalled.
“Canada’s housing market faces pent-up demand after two stifling years of high borrowing costs. While inflation control is crucial, persistently high rates are increasing the risk of a surge in demand when buyers inevitably return. New household formation and immigration keep fueling the need for housing, and a sudden release could create much market instability. This highlights the need for a more nuanced approach that balances inflation control with economic vitality,” added Soper.
“It is worth noting that once you remove the impact of high mortgage rates themselves from Canada’s Consumer Price Index calculation, inflation today sits well below the two per cent target.”
According to Statistics Canada’s latest report, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 2.9 per cent in May, up from 2.7 per cent in April.[4] When shelter costs are removed, that figure dips to 1.5 per cent.
Increased borrowing costs slow new home construction
Elevated borrowing rates are not only dampening housing market activity but also stifling the construction of new homes. Builders, who rely heavily on lending, are finding it increasingly difficult to finance new projects, exacerbating the country’s shortage of housing at a time when our population continues to grow.
“Gradual interest rate reductions could unlock a housing supply logjam,” said Soper. “Lower rates would not only empower buyers but also incentivize builders, who rely on borrowing for development. This is crucial to meet the diverse needs of our growing population. We need affordable options for first-time buyers, growing families, and downsizing retirees. Incremental rate adjustments are key to achieving a balanced and inclusive housing market. Without a significant supply boost, prices will continue to rise, impacting both those who seek home ownership and the one-third of Canadians in rental markets.”
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported a month-over-month increase in national housing starts in May, following two months of decline.[5] In Vancouver, where competition for housing remains extremely tight, housing starts declined, while Toronto and Montreal posted a lift in starts. Still, the rate of new construction remains well below what is required to satisfy demand.
“Canada’s housing market faces complex challenges. While raising interest rates was crucial to fighting inflation, it has unintentionally choked off the essential flow of new housing supply. Higher borrowing costs, coupled with labour shortages in the construction trades and rising material prices, have made it economically unsustainable for developers to launch new projects. This creates a perfect storm – our population is growing steadily, yet we’re building far fewer homes than what’s needed to meet that demand. This situation urgently needs innovative solutions to ensure Canadians have access to affordable housing options,” concluded Soper.
Forecast
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see continued moderate price appreciation throughout the second half of the year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Toronto Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 0.9 per cent year over year to $1,190,600 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA rose 1.1 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.3 per cent year over year to $1,466,400 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.4 per cent to $741,500 during the same period.
“Sales activity in the GTA was unseasonably low this spring. Almost all of the price appreciation we’ve seen year to date occurred in the first quarter, followed by a virtual flatline. New listings are up double digits compared to this time last year, and active listings are the highest they’ve been in more than a decade,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “While many buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines, this will be good news for them when they resume their home buying plans. The region has been starved for housing inventory for some time. Once consumers regain the confidence to re-enter the market – likely following several more interest rate cuts – this boost in supply will be a welcome improvement to market conditions.”
In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased modestly by 0.5 per cent year over year to $1,215,300 in the second quarter of 2024. However, the aggregate price of a home in Toronto increased 4.8 per cent quarter over quarter. The median price of a single-family detached home declined 0.9 per cent year over year to $1,763,200, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.4 per cent to $711,500.
“This time last year, sales activity and home prices ramped up following the first rate hold by the Bank of Canada, the first signal of relief since the start of its aggressive campaign to tamp down inflation. By comparison, prices recorded in the second quarter of this year are hovering around flat or showing modest decreases,” said Yolevski. “However, the trendline from the start of 2024 shows moderate, incremental gains. Despite a marked slowdown in activity, home prices are not trending downward, as most sellers have demonstrated they have the ability to hold out for the right buyer.”
Yolevski added that activity has slowed across all segments and housing types, not only in the resale market, but in pre-construction as well.
“Consumers’ ability to purchase a new construction property – whether investors or end-users – has been blunted by the fast and furious rise in interest rates over the last two years, as the value of pre-construction units are not increasing at the same pace as mortgage costs in the time between purchasing and closing. This drop in demand has in turn diminished builders’ confidence to launch new products in the near-term,” said Yolevski. “The high cost of borrowing continues to be a major roadblock for builders in this city, and across the country.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 10.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The GTA is set to see the greatest price appreciation of all major markets.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Greater Montreal Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 4.8 per cent year over year to $599,400 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 3.5 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.8 per cent year over year to $681,300 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.9 per cent to $465,800 during the same period.
“It’s still too early to measure the full impact of this first rate cut on June 5th, but it is fair to say that the decision signals a change in tone by the central bank. Even if the 25-basis-point cut is immaterial in enlarging buyers’ budgets, it has certainly strengthened their resolve to resume the process,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president of business development, Royal LePage. “We may only see the effects of this easing of monetary policy on real estate transactions in a few months’ time, when subsequent reductions to the key interest rate are likely to have taken place. We expect activity to pick up, slowly but surely, between now and the end of the summer period.”
In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 6.1 per cent year over year to $736,600 in the second quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.6 per cent to $1,139,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.7 per cent to $573,000.
At the beginning of 2024, buyers were present, motivated by expectations of lower interest rates. However, the number of sellers was limited, creating increased pressure on property prices. With more inventory in the second quarter, sales accelerated.
“The year started off like a lion, with buyers rushing in even before the Bank of Canada changed course on its monetary policy,” noted Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance. “In the first quarter of the year, sellers returned to the market, but in smaller numbers than buyers, putting upward pressure on property prices. Then, in the second quarter, sellers made a stronger comeback, increasing the supply on the market and encouraging a rise in transactions.”
Despite some rebalancing of supply and demand last quarter, the chronic housing supply shortage in Quebec remains a challenge. Rising borrowing costs over the past two years have not only put home ownership out of reach for some buyers, but also curbed builders’ borrowing capacity.
“2023 was marked by a record decline in housing starts in Quebec,” points out St-Pierre, citing the rising interest rate environment as the main cause. “As the Bank of Canada implements its plan to reduce its key lending rate, we should begin to see a recovery of new construction projects across the province. At the same time, the various regulatory and permitting bodies in Quebec municipalities must work together to accelerate the pace of construction in order to alleviate the housing crisis we are experiencing.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Greater Vancouver
The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 3.9 per cent to $1,251,200 year over year in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.0 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.6 per cent year over year to $1,783,000 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.0 per cent to $777,100 during the same period.
“The Vancouver housing market has been treading water as of late – activity is lower than the 10-year average, but is not at a total standstill. The highly-anticipated rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June did not lead a materially greater number of buyers back to the market, a factor that is keeping home prices relatively flat,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “We continue to see consumers sitting on the fence, taking their time with their real estate purchase decisions. Inventory has continued to grow, giving prospective buyers some much-needed choice and keeping market conditions balanced. As is normally the case for this time of year, buyers and sellers have hit pause to enjoy the summer months.”
Ryalls added that many developers continue to pump the brakes on new project launches. Elevated borrowing costs, coupled with labour shortages and high material prices, are making it difficult for builders to break even on new housing developments. Meanwhile, the provincial government is actively trying to incentivize the creation of new home supply, particularly near transit centres, in an effort to bring housing affordability under control.
In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 0.3 per cent year over year to $1,438,700 in the second quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.6 per cent to $2,293,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.7 per cent to $852,100.
“In the months ahead, I expect we will see a typical sleepy summer market. If inventory levels continue to rise at the rate we’ve been seeing, those who are under tight pressure to sell may need to consider lowering their list price in order to attract buyer attention,” said Ryalls. “Even if the Bank of Canada makes another rate cut in July, it’s unclear if it will stimulate buyer demand. It would take a much more profound decrease to interest rates to reverse the trends we are currently experiencing.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Ottawa
The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 2.1 per cent year over year to $777,400 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.6 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.3 per cent year over year to $896,200 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.0 per cent to $404,300 during the same period.
“Many would-be homebuyers continue to sit on the sidelines, an indication that the recent 25-basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada has not convinced many purchasers to return to the market. Meanwhile, the expectation of a rate drop and a subsequent upswing in market activity, prompted many sellers to list their homes throughout the spring,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “While demand has slowed, it is likely to pick up again in the fall, especially if we see further rate cuts. However, the summer months will be relatively quiet, as is typical for this time of year.”
Rogan noted that Ottawa’s healthy job market and ample number of dual-income households is largely preventing homeowners from being forced to sell in order to cope with higher carrying costs.
“Thankfully, we have not seen many sellers list their homes under the duress of an unaffordable mortgage renewal,” added Rogan. “Buyers are proceeding with caution and sellers are holding out for the right offer. Many buyers are trying to navigate higher interest rates and the elevated costs of carrying a mortgage. Until we see a series of cuts to the overnight lending rate, I expect buyer hesitation will continue.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Quebec City
The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 10.4 per cent year over year to $387,000 in the second quarter of 2024, the strongest price appreciation recorded among the country’s major real estate markets. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 5.5 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.7 per cent year over year to $405,300 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 12.7 per cent to $290,200 during the same period.
“The Quebec City real estate market is still very buoyant, stimulated by a low number of properties for sale, strong demand and affordable home values compared to many other markets in Quebec and Canada,” says Michèle Fournier, vice president and chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec.
Moreover, Quebec City is the most popular destination for Montrealers looking for affordability in the housing market, according to a survey conducted in May by Royal LePage.[6]
“Unlike other markets in the province, multiple-offer scenarios are still the order of the day, when the price is justified and the property is well-presented. With the downward trend in interest rates, we find ourselves in the midst of a perfect storm for real estate price growth.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 9.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upwards to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Calgary
The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 7.9 per cent year over year to $694,000 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.6 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.3 per cent year over year to $797,200 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.6 per cent to $273,600 during the same period.
“Sales activity remains strong in Calgary, with many homebuyers competing for properties in multiple-offer scenarios. The June interest rate cut, however, did not add fuel to the already red-hot market. So far, the long-awaited rate drop has only really benefited variable-rate mortgage holders, who are now seeing some relief on their monthly mortgage payments,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “Inventory has seen some recent growth, but not enough to keep up with current demand levels. Attached and row homes, which are appealing property types for those who can’t get on the single-family detached property ladder, are popular among entry-level buyer hopefuls. Consistently, there has been approximately one month’s worth of supply available for all property types.”
Lyall noted that new supply continues to come on the market through the development of townhomes and condominiums. Increasingly, developers are opting to build multi-unit properties on single lots, adding more density and much-needed entry-level supply to the market.
“In the months ahead, we should see a gradual slowdown as consumers take a break for the summer, before activity picks up in the fall again,” said Lyall. “The late third quarter and fourth quarter of this year could be particularly strong for sales if interest rates continue to decline. My hope, however, is that rate cuts will roll out gradually so that supply levels have enough time to be replenished ahead of rising buyer demand.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Edmonton
The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 3.7 per cent year over year to $450,600 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.9 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.5 per cent year over year to $497,200 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $201,600 during the same period.
“The first half of the year has been very strong in terms of sales activity, and I expect we will even surpass the high volume of transactions recorded during the height of the pandemic real estate boom. In fact, were it not for the constraints of extremely low supply, we’d likely see even more deals getting done,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Right now, every home to hit the market that’s well-maintained and appropriately-priced is getting scooped up. Essentially, the only properties that are languishing are overpriced or still in the pre-construction phase.”
Shearer expects strong buyer demand to continue through the summer and fall, and activity to dip in the winter, as is typical for the region. However, he does not expect further interest rate cuts to materially increase the number of buyers in the market, but believes those who are already active will have greater buying power as a result.
“There is something for everyone in Edmonton, regardless of the area, size, price point or type of property you are looking for,” Shearer added. “Newcomers to the province – both from inter-provincial migration and international immigration – continue to drive demand and price appreciation in the city centre and surrounding regions. And, employment opportunities in the oil and gas industry are not the only reason people are choosing to live in the area. It’s a combination of factors, including the lifestyle, affordability and access to nature Edmonton has to offer.”
This was clear in a recent survey by Royal LePage, which identified the 15 most affordable Canadian cities based on the percentage of income required to service a monthly mortgage payment. Edmonton topped the list of cities residents in Toronto and Vancouver would be willing to relocate to, if they could find a job or work remotely.[7]
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Halifax
The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 3.7 per cent year over year to $513,700 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.1 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.1 per cent year over year to $582,500 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.0 per cent to $412,600 during the same period.
“On the whole, there doesn’t seem to be a sense of urgency among Halifax homebuyers at the moment, as many wait to see how falling interest rates will influence the market. The June interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada did not bring the wave of activity some may have been anticipating,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “The exception to this is the entry-level segment of the market, which remains highly active thanks to first-time homebuyers. High and fast-rising rental costs are pushing many tenants into the resale market sooner than they planned, given that the monthly carrying costs of home ownership are now less than or equal to leasing in some cases.”
Honsberger added that new resale inventory continues to rise from record lows, but remains below historical norms. New developments in areas surrounding downtown Halifax continue to pop up, with a wide variety of housing types being built. This will bring some much-needed supply to the region.
“If interest rates continue on a downward trajectory and housing affordability improves as a result, we could see a surge in buying and selling activity come the fall. Consumers who have been waiting out high interest rates will be motivated to move off the sidelines and into the market once again if the overnight lending rate comes down substantially. This includes move-up buyers, who have remained somewhat inactive – activity from this segment will bring more supply to the market,” said Honsberger. “A boost in transactions will result in upward pressure on home prices, but nothing like the intensity we experienced in recent years when borrowing rates were at all-time lows.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Winnipeg
The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 4.3 per cent year over year to $403,400 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 3.2 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.7 per cent year over year to $442,300 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.8 per cent to $265,200 during the same period.
“Winnipeg experienced a robust spring market, with activity levels significantly ahead of this time last year,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “However, the first few weeks of the summer have been uncharacteristically slow, signalling an early seasonal plateau. The interest rate cut did not factor much into our market nor buck any seasonal norms. Inventory levels still cannot satisfy the strong demand for housing, despite some buyers opting to wait for further interest rate drops.”
Despite a slowdown towards the end of the second quarter, the housing market in Winnipeg remains strong. Froese noted that demand is largely centred on single-family detached homes. However, there has been an increased interest in attached homes and condominiums of late.
“Buyers are eager to enter the market at any price point they can. Many developers are also adding secondary suites to properties, driven by demand from young buyers looking to offset their mortgage payments with rental income,” added Froese. “More than 40 per cent of homes sold over list price in June, compared to the third of properties that were sold over list in the same month last year. This suggests that the sellers’ market we’ve been experiencing will continue throughout the summer, keeping prices buoyant.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
Regina
The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 2.6 per cent year over year to $384,800 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.3 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $420,400 in the second quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.2 per cent to $231,200 during the same period.
“Regina’s housing market is currently facing significant inventory shortages, which has resulted in increased competition and multiple-offer scenarios. The market is highly active across all property types. This includes condominiums, which have typically stayed on the market for longer periods of time, but have recently been selling much quicker” said Shaheen Zareh, sales representative, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “I anticipate activity will continue to ramp up throughout the summer months, especially if interest rates continue to drop. This may drive home prices upward.”
Zareh noted that current market conditions are making it especially challenging for first-time homebuyers. However, driven by escalating rental rates and the looming prospect of higher housing prices from increased competition, these buyer hopefuls are still eager to enter the market.
“With rental prices pushing more residents towards home ownership, and interest rates set to drop further, I expect these trends to continue and even intensify as the year progresses,” Zareh added. “The wildcard factor that we are watching closely is mortgage renewals. If a large number of homeowners move to sell when their loans come up for renewal, inevitably at a higher rate, a surge of inventory could hit the market. Still, these sellers will continue to face ongoing inventory and affordability challenges.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q2-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q2-2024
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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
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[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.
[2] Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points, June 5, 2024
[3] Half of sidelined homebuyers waiting for interest rate cuts to resume their purchase plans, February 27, 2024
[4] Consumer Price Index, May 2024, June 25, 2024
[5] Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data Tables, June 17, 2024
[6] Half of residents in Canada’s largest urban centres eyeing move to more affordable real estate markets, May 29th, 2024
[7] Half of residents in Canada’s largest urban centres eyeing move to more affordable real estate markets, May 29, 2024
