Royal LePage upgrades national year-end home price forecast as Canadian real estate market hits ‘critical tipping point’
In 2024, Greater Toronto and Montreal home price appreciation expected to outpace former frontrunner, Calgary
First-quarter highlights:
- National aggregate home price expected to rise 9.0% year over year in Q4 of 2024 (up from previous forecast of 5.5%)
- Aggregate home prices in the greater regions of Toronto and Montreal expected to increase 10.0% and 8.5% year over year in Q4 2024, respectively, the highest forecasts of all major regions
- Royal LePage® expects home prices in the Greater Toronto Area will surpass those in Greater Vancouver in 2024
- Among major regions, Calgary recorded highest year-over-year aggregate price appreciation (9.7%) for the second consecutive quarter; increased 1.9% on a quarterly basis
- 89% of regions in the report recorded quarterly price appreciation in the first three months of the year, ahead of the traditionally busy spring market period
TORONTO, April 12, 2024 – Royal LePage is forecasting that the
aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year. Based on stronger-than-expected first quarter results, the previous forecast has been upgraded nationally and in most major markets.
According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada increased 4.3 per cent year over year to $812,100 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased 2.9 per cent, an indication that sidelined buyers are rebooting their real estate purchase plans ahead of expected interest rate cuts, as predicted in January.
“Consistent with our previous forecast, the market did reach a critical tipping point in the first quarter of 2024, when home prices bottomed out and began to appreciate again. Clearly, more and more buyers are motivated by the need to get ahead of rising home prices, rather than adopting the strategy of waiting for mortgage rates to fall,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.
Within the first months of the new year, the Canadian housing market has already recorded solid price appreciation and higher sales activity. Starting in July of 2023, the Bank of Canada has held rates steady through six review periods. This has prompted many homebuyers to come off of the sidelines in advance of what they expect will be a more competitive spring market that will drive home prices higher.
“Many consumers – particularly first-time buyers – who have the capacity to transact have accepted and adapted to the higher borrowing cost environment. Thus, the modestly-rising home prices we are experiencing today,” continued Soper. “Once the central bank does make a move, and that first highly-anticipated cut to rates is made, even if it is only by 25 basis points, I expect we will see the price appreciation curve steepen upwards when the highly rate-focused crowd jumps into the market.”
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.5 per cent year over year to $845,300, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.5 per cent year over year to $591,900. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.6 per cent, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.4 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
“While real estate boards across the country are reporting a boost in listings, which is typical as we head into the spring market rush, just about every region from coast to coast remains chronically short of housing supply,” added Soper. “While we expect that interest rate decreases will draw more buyers back into the ring, this will not be the primary driver of rising home prices – it is the severe shortage of housing in markets small and large in virtually every part of the country that remains the main culprit.”
Home prices in Canada have not yet fully recovered from the post-pandemic correction in most regions, with the aggregate price of a home in Canada sitting 5.2 per cent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2022. However, the national aggregate home price remains well above pre-pandemic levels. In the first quarter of 2024, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded an increase of 29.4 per cent over the same period in 2019.
Interest rate cuts and mortgage renewals
“Given the strong start to 2024, the cadence of the market for the balance of the year points to a normally busy spring market that will lead into an uncomfortably busy fall. It is clear we are rapidly transitioning away from a buyers’ market and back to an environment where the seller has the upper hand,” noted Soper.
By the end of 2026, almost all mortgages taken out before the Bank of Canada started raising its key lending rate in March of 2022, will have transitioned through a renewal cycle and into an elevated borrowing rate environment.[2]
“Homeowners who took advantage of the historically-low mortgage rates at the beginning of the decade have soberly accepted that their upcoming renewals will mean higher borrowing expenses. We do not see this as a material drag on the housing market. Two years into the post-pandemic period, about half of mortgages have rolled off those record lows, and Canadians continue to meet obligations to their lenders, with the national mortgage default rate remaining at near historic lows. Further, income growth and the period of flat home prices have helped to mitigate the impact of increased mortgage costs. People will go to great lengths to hang onto their homes, so we can expect a pull-back in discretionary spending, including on travel and entertainment,” said Soper.
Greater Toronto and Montreal home price appreciation to outpace Calgary
The aggregate price of a home in the greater regions of Toronto and Montreal are forecast to increase 10.0 per cent and 8.5 per cent year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2024, outpacing price gains in the city of Calgary, which was previously expected to see the greatest increase in home values this year.
“Last year, while property values dipped in most markets across the country, the Calgary real estate market bucked the trend and continued to record home price gains. While activity levels remain strong and prices continue to rise in Alberta, our research indicates that buyer demand, relative to available inventory, is strongest in the two largest urban centres in the country. We now expect Toronto and Montreal to log the highest home price appreciation this year,” added Soper.
This sustained price appreciation is expected to close the gap between the country’s two most expensive real estate markets, Toronto and Vancouver. While Vancouver remains the nation’s most expensive market today, Royal LePage predicts that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will surpass Greater Vancouver in the second half of 2024.
Federal budget includes measures to combat housing supply and affordability crisis
Leading up to the official release of the 2024 federal budget on April 16, the Liberal government announced details of several proposed measures aimed at speeding up housing construction and boosting rental supply. Billions of dollars will be allocated to the construction and upgrading of infrastructure that is critical to support more housing. The federal government also announced the Canadian Renters’ Bill of Rights, which would require landlords to disclose a clear history of a unit’s pricing, create a countrywide standard lease agreement, and allow tenants’ monthly rent payments to count towards their credit score.
“It will be imperative for all political leaders, from every party and at all levels of government, to prioritize initiatives that support Canada’s strained housing market. Demand-side policies, both those that aim to curb buyer interest in an effort to keep a lid on prices, and financial incentives aimed at helping buyers enter the market – and as a result, create additional artificial demand – are well-intentioned mistakes, creating more demand-supply imbalance, and pushing prices northward at an increased pace,” remarked Soper.
“Focus recently has shifted to incenting the rapid construction of more homes,” he continued, “which is the solution needed to address our housing affordability challenges. These programs should extend to measures aimed at incenting investment into rental accommodation, and not just at the builder level. We need more individual property investors; small-business landlords who form an important foundation of affordable housing stock for the roughly one third of Canadians who are tenants.”
Despite a material increase in apartment unit starts in 2023, new supply continues to be outpaced by growing demand, due to new household formation and unprecedented population growth. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts in the country’s six largest census metropolitan areas have remained stable over the last three years, with record condominium apartment starts offsetting the decline in single-family dwellings.[3]
Meanwhile, the country welcomed more than 470,000 new permanent residents in 2023.[4] According to the CMHC report, if immigration levels continue on this trajectory, Canada will require the construction of another four million homes – on top of what is currently projected to be built – by 2030, in order to restore affordability to levels last seen two decades ago.
Following record levels of immigration in 2022 and 2023, the federal government announced last month that it would be working to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5 per cent of the national population by 2027, down from its current level of 6.2 per cent.[5]
“The reduction of non-permanent residents, which includes international students, should have a material impact on Canada’s extremely tight rental market, easing the rate at which rents are rising by reducing competition for limited properties,” said Soper. “This move comes at a cost, however. Non-permanent residents are critical to addressing our labour shortages, and an important engine of economic growth. We will undoubtedly be easing quotas up again in the near future.”
Forecast
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Nationally, home prices are forecast to see strong price appreciation through the second and third quarters, and taper off in the final months of the year, as is the seasonal norm.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Toronto Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 5.2 per cent year over year to $1,177,700 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA rose 4.8 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $1,454,800 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.7 per cent to $733,600 during the same period.
“The first three months of the year were busier than expected in Toronto and the surrounding regions. Warm winter weather and the anticipation of tight competition once the Bank of Canada reverses course on part of its steep interest rate hike campaign have prompted some buyers who had been sidelined last year to re-enter the market with a renewed sense of purpose,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “The good news is buyers are acting with their heads, not just their hearts. They have no choice, since elevated borrowing costs and tight lending restrictions are limiting their buying power. Even in multiple-offer scenarios, which we are starting to see a lot more of, homes are selling for market value. This is a vastly different environment than the supercharged markets of 2020 and 2021.”
In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 1.4 per cent year over year to $1,160,000 in the first quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.1 per cent to $1,706,300, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.3 per cent to $714,900.
Yolevski noted that activity and price trends in the GTA’s housing market in the first part of the year are unfolding much as Royal LePage predicted they would.
“At the end of 2023, we forecast modest price gains in the first half of this year and stronger appreciation in the third quarter, following one or more expected rate cuts. What we’ve seen so far is a boost in sales volumes and prices even greater than predicted. We should see a seasonal pick-up in spring market activity and an even busier fall, if these trends continue,” said Yolevski. “Since the start of the year, average days on market have been steadily decreasing and we’re starting to see an uptick in new listings, which are desperately needed.
“Major banks began modestly reducing lending rates late last year, offering a bit of breathing room for buyers looking to transact at a lower interest rate before prices increased too much. That window, especially for first-time buyers, is quickly closing.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 10.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter. The GTA is set to see the greatest price appreciation of all major markets.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Greater Montreal Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 5.1 per cent year over year to $579,300 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GMA increased 2.2 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 7.3 per cent year over year to $661,100 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.6 per cent to $462,300 during the same period.
The first quarter of 2024 proved to be more active than expected in the Greater Montreal real estate market, and across Quebec, as spring temperatures and the expectation of an upcoming interest rate cut prompted buyers to accelerate their property searches.
“Our last market forecast was accurate, even conservative. Faced with an ongoing housing shortage and widespread anticipation that the Bank of Canada is preparing to lower its overnight lending rate in 2024, we warned last December that pent-up demand would return to the market well before interest rates fell, and that’s exactly what happened in the first quarter of the year,” said Dominic St-Pierre, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Royal LePage.
“Expecting that rates could begin to dip around June, buyers rushed and resumed their home buying plans in a race against the clock, hoping to close on their transactions just as financing costs began their descent,” adds Mr. St-Pierre. “The problem is that with inventory still well below the needs of the growing population, many buyers had the same idea, which pushed prices up significantly in the space of a single quarter. The window of opportunity will close fairly quickly for those hoping to take advantage of the market slowdown and lower financing costs, particularly for first-time buyers whose purchasing power continues to erode. In addition, the rental market will continue to face price increases in 2024, adding to the challenge for renters wishing to unlock the doors of home ownership.”
In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 8.9 per cent year over year to $724,300 in the first quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.5 per cent to $1,117,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.8 per cent to $566,200.
“The real estate market is destined for a new period of price growth across the country and the province,” said St-Pierre. “While many buyers previously pushed out of the market because of rising interest rates will try to return at the first sign of falling borrowing costs, competition over a chronically low supply of available properties is likely to push values upwards, erasing the short-lived opportunity expected by buyers.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Greater Vancouver
The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 3.4 per cent to $1,238,200 year over year in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.5 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.3 per cent year over year to $1,750,000 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.3 per cent to $778,600 during the same period.
“Heading into spring, the Vancouver market has been steadily gaining momentum, though not at the feverish pace that other markets across Canada have seen as of late. Desperately needed housing inventory has been building, pushing the reserve of homes up from 8,000 listings at the beginning of the year to closer to 10,000,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “We are not in a full on sellers’ market yet, but most housing segments are moving toward a sellers’ market and desirable, well-priced properties are being quickly snapped up, often in multiple-offer scenarios, a sign of pent up demand and that home prices will continue to increase as we head further into the second quarter. Buyers are coming off of the sidelines and are ready to compete.”
Ryalls added that the sentiment among developers remains lukewarm, as builders wait for more certainty on consumer appetite and the state of the Canadian economy before launching additional pre-construction projects. With interest rates anticipated to drop later in the year, development activity is expected to pick up as market conditions improve.
In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 2.8 per cent year over year to $1,402,400 in the first quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.4 per cent to $2,253,300, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.3 per cent to $844,500.
“The gentle upswing in activity we’ve experienced in the first few months of the year is expected to continue throughout the months ahead, likely resulting in a moderate increase to home prices,” said Ryalls. “We predict that many buyers will attempt to enter the market in the near future in anticipation of a surge in demand when interest rates eventually drop.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Ottawa
The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 4.4 per cent year over year to $757,700 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose by a modest 0.4 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.5 per cent year over year to $869,300 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.6 per cent to $401,500 during the same period.
“The Ottawa housing market has seen a positive start to the year, with an uptick in activity persisting as we enter the spring market. With an anticipated drop in interest rates expected this year, buyers and sellers are regaining confidence and are beginning to come off the sidelines,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record, Royal LePage Team Realty. “With this boost in market activity, we have begun to see more multiple-offer scenarios taking place, less so in comparison to the peak of the pandemic, but enough to put upward pressure on housing prices. I expect this momentum will continue into the summer and fall markets.”
While the region’s inventory levels have seen improvement compared to the previous year, there is still not enough supply to satisfy the growing demand.
“Demand for all housing types continues to outpace available supply in Ottawa. While we are seeing more product become available, we are still lacking enough inventory to satisfy demand, especially as buyer activity ramps up. I expect more sellers will be willing to list their homes if we see interest rates decrease in the coming months,” added Ralph.
Ralph noted that new developments for both single-family homes and condominiums have picked up again as buyer demand surges. He predicts that this uptick in new developments will help alleviate inventory constraints, and anticipates an increase in new-build transactions this year.
“Looking ahead, I expect interest rate cuts will spur market activity further in Ottawa as more buyers and sellers jump back into the market. I believe we will see a robust spring market followed by even stronger summer and fall seasons, where we will really begin to see the benefits of lowered lending rates,” added Ralph.
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Quebec City
The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 7.7 per cent year over year to $366,800 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.9 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.6 per cent year over year to $391,600 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $274,800 during the same period.
“During 2023, Quebec City was one of the only real estate markets in the province to avoid a price correction. Looking at the first three months of this year, everything points to 2024 exceeding 2023 market conditions, in terms of sales and price appreciation,” said Michèle Fournier, vice-president and chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “We’re also noticing that transactions are being signed quickly, a trend that is confirmed by declining days on market, compared to this time last year.”
Fournier also noted an increase in activity in the condominium market, which is set to continue in the months ahead with demand from first-time buyers expected to intensify as the Bank of Canada adjusts its key rate downward.
“The Quebec City real estate market is exceeding all forecasts,” noted Fournier. “I explain this unusual growth in property prices for the region by the fact that Quebec City is catching up with more dynamic markets, like Montreal. On the other hand, unemployment remains historically low. As is the case for all of the province’s economies, price gains in the Quebec City real estate market are also stimulated by the housing shortage, combined with the expectation of an imminent interest rate cut,” she concluded.
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Calgary
The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 9.7 per cent year over year to $676,400 in the first quarter of 2024 – the highest aggregate price appreciation of all major regions for the second consecutive quarter. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.9 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.8 per cent year over year to $774,000 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.8 per cent to $264,800 during the same period.
“Sales activity in Calgary’s real estate market is still fervent, though we would have even more transactions if there were more properties to buy. Those who couldn’t purchase a home last year are still trying in 2024, only to be faced with multiple offers due to super-low inventory levels, a factor that is fueling competition and pushing up prices. Almost every new property that gets listed is being bought up quickly, and sales are outpacing active listings. This phenomenon is not only occurring in Calgary, but also in smaller neighbouring communities that are more than an hour’s commute away,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “We continue to see strong migration to the city, both internationally and interprovincially. Though there have been more housing starts this year, there are not enough homes being built to keep pace with the growing rate of demand.”
Lyall noted that sellers are also struggling with elevated market demand. Many are hesitant to list, concerned that their home will sell very quickly and leave them with a short runway to secure a new property in this low-supply environment. However, Lyall expects that Calgary will see some inventory relief in 2026 when most mortgages have been renewed, forcing some overleveraged homeowners to downsize and list their homes.
“It appears many sellers are still waiting on the sidelines for interest rates to drop. Hopefully we will see a boost in much-needed supply when that happens,” said Lyall. “Until then, we are expecting both activity levels and home prices to keep rising as the imbalance between supply and demand remains a concern.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Edmonton
The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 3.0 per cent year over year to $442,200 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.7 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.2 per cent year over year to $485,500 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased modestly by 0.6 per cent to $196,500 during the same period.
“Following a busier-than-normal first quarter, Edmonton’s real estate market is heading into spring with sustained high levels of buying and selling activity. With inventory at a two-year low, sellers have the upper hand in this hot market, driven in part by Ontarians relocating to the city. Edmonton’s more affordable housing options and healthy job market continue to attract out-of-province buyers,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Move-up buyers are particularly squeezed by the low-supply conundrum – without enough listings available to upgrade into, existing homeowners are staying put, which is preventing entry-level housing geared towards first-time buyers from hitting the market. Given how competitive conditions are becoming, first-time purchasers do not have the luxury of overthinking their decision right now.”
Shearer noted that Edmonton’s starter homes have been receiving a lot of interest as of late. Homes priced under the $575,000 mark tend to fetch two or three offers at a time as competition in this segment remains tight. Similarly, interest in the condominium market has been picking up steam for the first time in years, though the segment remains an affordable entry point for most buyers and investors.
“The critical question we ask ourselves is: Will new inventory come and if so, when?” said Shearer. “With limited home supply and an influx of residents moving to the city, I expect we will continue to see price growth and strong levels of activity throughout the second quarter of 2024 and into the summer and fall markets.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Halifax
The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 7.0 per cent year over year to $508,100 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 3.5 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.0 per cent year over year to $575,000 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased modestly by 0.8 per cent to $404,900 during the same period.
“Sales activity and home prices have been picking up in Halifax heading into the first weeks of the second quarter, a typical pattern for this time of year. With the spring market gaining momentum, sidelined buyers are cautiously re-entering the marketplace, especially those first-time buyers who have reached their 30s and are looking to put down roots,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Agents are already preparing for the spring rush. Though we have seen more sellers putting their properties on the market in recent weeks, it has not been enough to keep up with steadily climbing demand.”
Honsberger added that Halifax continues to grapple with a housing supply shortage, which is keeping upward pressure on prices. However, a high number of housing starts and active construction projects will bring much-needed inventory to the region in the coming years.
“Economic indicators point to a slowing rate of inflation and a possible cut to interest rates later this year, factors that are strengthening the confidence of buyer hopefuls,” said Honsberger. “Should we see that first highly-anticipated rate cut in the coming months, demand for homes will accelerate as the cost of borrowing becomes cheaper, but not to a degree that the door to the market will fly off of its hinges.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Winnipeg
The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 5.7 per cent year over year to $390,900 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 3.4 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.9 per cent year over year to $431,000 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.9 per cent to $260,400 during the same period.
“We experienced a much more seasonally typical first quarter in 2024 compared to recent years, with market activity quickly ramping up heading into the early weeks of spring. Although sales are down from the five-year regional average, year over year, we have seen a steady increase in the number of homes changing hands,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Many sidelined buyers, now feeling confident about the trajectory of interest rates, are jumping back into the market. Homes in the mid-tier and luxury price points are recording steadily climbing levels of demand, which tells us that the people who didn’t have a crucial reason to move over the past year are now reactivating their real estate purchase plans. Demand for Winnipeg homes never went away – it was just deferred.”
Froese added that buyer demand is three times greater than the available home supply, which will keep prices on an upward trend for the foreseeable future. Entry-level properties, those under the $500,000 mark, are seeing the most competition as re-engaged first-time buyers look to secure their first home.
“The second quarter of the year is normally our busiest time, and 2024 will be no different. Though a potential cut to borrowing rates will make things easier for buyers, I don’t expect it will fuel much more demand. A lot of buyers are done with waiting, and having already adjusted to the current rate environment, are moving ahead with their plans to purchase regardless of what the Bank of Canada does next,” said Froese.
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
Regina
The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 4.7 per cent year over year to $379,700 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 3.3 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.3 per cent year over year to $411,600 in the first quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium was virtually flat, increasing 0.5 per cent to $223,900 during the same period.
“Building upon the rising levels of demand we saw at the end of 2023, Regina’s housing market has seen a boost in activity as we enter the spring market. All property segments have been getting attention as of late, from entry-level condos to luxury homes,” said Shaheen Zareh, sales representative, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “A big driver of this activity is rising rental prices, which are pushing more first-time buyers out of tenancy and into home ownership. With rental costs and mortgage payments roughly equal in many cases, homebuyer hopefuls feel a desire to jump into the market. Clients also feel an increasing fear of missing out and want to snap up what little supply is making it onto the market.”
Zareh added that Regina continues to see low inventory compared to buyer demand. New home supply has grown slightly in recent months, but consists mainly of relisted homes that had trouble selling when the market was quieter. With the price of renovation services and construction materials having increased sharply over the past year, homes in good condition with minimal updates required are in high demand.
“Regina’s lack of home supply will continue to push prices up, as multiple-offer scenarios and competitive bidding conditions persist. I imagine that market pressure will only intensify if the Bank of Canada lowers its key lending rate later this year, as the threshold for buyers to enter the market will drop,” Zareh added.
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2024
For other regional releases, click here.
Royal LePage Royalty-Free Media Assets:
Royal LePage’s media room contains royalty-free assets, such as images and b-roll, that are free for media use.
- Media room: ca/mediaroom
- Royalty-free assets: ca/media-assets
About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc.
For more information, please contact:
Anne-Elise Cugliari Allegritti
Director of Communications
(647) 229-6626
anne-elise@royallepage.ca
[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.
[2] The impact of higher interest rates on mortgage payments, December, 2023
[3] Housing Supply Report, Spring 2024, March 27, 2024, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
[4] Building a stronger immigration system – Permanent residence, March 25, 2024
[5] Speaking notes for the Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship: Announcement related to Temporary Residents, March 21, 2024
