Real estate rebound: Canada’s sluggish housing markets in recovery mode following third straight interest rate cut
Further rate decreases expected to set the stage for an early spring market
Third-quarter highlights:
- The national aggregate home price rose a modest 1.6% year over year in Q3 2024, and decreased 1.1% over Q2.
- Greater Montreal’s aggregate home price increased 5.2% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets showed little change, rising 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.
- For the second consecutive quarter, Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.5%) in Q3 among the report’s major regions.
- Major markets in the prairie provinces continue to show resilience and strength, as tight supply pushed prices upward in Q3.
- Royal LePage® expects home prices to remain stable through Q4; forecasts pull-ahead of spring market on expectation of continued easing of lending rates.
TORONTO, October 10, 2024 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada increased 1.6 per cent year over year to $815,500 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price decreased 1.1 per cent, following sluggish activity in most – though not all – markets through the summer months. Coast to coast, sales volumes began to pick up in September, and more than one third (38%) of regional markets covered in the report recorded positive aggregate price gains in the third quarter over the previous quarter.
“Despite three cuts to the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate, buyer demand nationally remains weak, particularly among two key groups: first-time homebuyers and small investors,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “First-time buyers, who are more sensitive to interest rates, are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. With home prices essentially flat and interest rates steadily declining, they perceive no penalty in postponing their purchase.
“Similarly, small investors who typically buy condominiums to rent out and supply much of Canada’s rental housing, are also hesitant. Elevated rates have made the financials unworkable, with carrying costs surpassing rental income. While historically some landlords accept negative cash flow temporarily when properties are appreciating in value, the current flat prices do not justify many investments,” said Soper. “We believe that both groups will re-enter the market in significant numbers as property values begin to rise again. With further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada likely this year, we anticipate prices will appreciate more quickly, eliminating the advantages of waiting for first-time buyers and making calculations more favourable for investors.
“Total listings on royallepage.ca, Canada’s most visited real estate company website, reached a historical high in September, up 19 per cent year over year,” continued Soper. “Clearly, existing homeowners are ready to move. And, all buyers have more choice and less competition than is typical in our growing nation. The market recovery is underway and will continue to gain strength into 2025.”
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.0 per cent year over year to $850,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.5 per cent year over year to $590,200. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased modestly by 1.2 per cent, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.1 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
“With rates dropping, we see positive signs for sidelined buyers. As confidence grows and buyers anticipate rising prices, we expect a significant increase in activity. Given the building demand – both organic and from immigration – the 2025 spring market may start as early as late January or early February, a pull-ahead phenomenon we’ve seen in previous market turnarounds. The stage is set for a busy year ahead.”
New lending rules will ease affordability challenges and unlock opportunity for homebuyers
In recent weeks, a series of new regulations impacting mortgages and lending practices in Canada were announced. Starting on December 15th, all purchasers of new construction homes and all first-time buyers will be able to acquire an insured mortgage with a 30-year amortization period.[2] In addition, the federal government announced an increase to the insured mortgage cap from $1 million to $1.5 million.
Following the announcement of these changes, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) revealed that, beginning November 21st, it will eliminate the mortgage stress test for uninsured borrowers who plan to switch lenders upon renewing their loan, provided they maintain the same amortization schedule and loan amount.[3]
“These changes will have more impact on the early 2025 market than many anticipate. Expect a material bump in activity,” said Soper. “In addition to assisting first-time buyers, raising the cap on insured mortgages expands opportunities for move-up buyers in higher-priced markets, thereby freeing up inventory for new homeowners entering the market.
“While these updated mortgage rules are a timely strategy to alleviate some affordability pressure, they are not a silver bullet for the fundamental issue that persists: Canada urgently needs more housing supply. Continued efforts to boost inventory are essential for fostering a sustainable and healthy real estate market for future generations.”
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Hill & Knowlton,[4] 84 per cent of Canadians belonging to the adult generation Z and young millennial cohort – those aged 18 to 38 – believe that home ownership is a worthwhile investment. Among those who do not currently own a home, 75 per cent say they are planning to purchase a property as a primary residence; nearly half (40%) of them say they plan to do so within the next five to ten years.
In the report, Soper noted: “The youngest cohort of homebuyers in Canada have no shortage of barriers on their path to ownership. Though the cost of borrowing has begun to come down, chronic supply shortages have kept housing prices from dropping, even as demand softened under the weight of high interest rates. Despite these hurdles, the next generation of homebuyers remains committed to their pursuit of owning real estate, and are remarkably optimistic that they can make their dream a reality.”
According to The Conference Board of Canada’s latest report,[5] consumer confidence is on the rise. In September, the Index of Consumer Confidence increased 3.3 per cent over the previous month, reaching its highest level in over a year. Furthermore, the percentage of Canadians who believe now is a good time to make a major purchase rose.
Loans renewing at higher rates
Even as interest rates soften, millions of Canadians who secured fixed-rate mortgages in the period of ultra-low borrowing conditions prior to March of 2022, have seen their monthly carrying costs increase upon renewal, or they will soon.
“The Bank of Canada will not be able to cut rates quickly or deeply enough to take away all of the renewal pain for those still on pandemic-era, low-rate mortgages,” noted Soper. “While a small percentage of these families may be forced to relocate to more affordable regions or to a less expensive property, the majority of Canadians are well-positioned to weather this situation, thanks to the strict lending practices and safeguards implemented by our highly-regulated financial institutions.”
Currently, the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate sits at 4.25 per cent.[6] The central bank’s governing council has hinted at further rate cuts to come, noting that they are working to balance the risk of stimulating economic growth – specifically inflating shelter prices – with the possibility of weakening labour markets.[7] The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for October 23rd.
Regional trends vary from coast to coast
As was true of the pandemic-era real estate boom, the recovery is not unravelling evenly. Just as two of Canada’s largest and most expensive markets reached higher highs and lower lows between 2020 and 2023, Toronto and Vancouver are now lagging behind in the recovery as well. Meanwhile, regional markets in the province of Quebec and in the Prairies have shown greater resilience through the period of elevated interest rates.
“It’s taking longer for activity and home prices to bounce back in major cities where affordability challenges are greatest. Following subdued activity this spring and summer in the Greater Toronto Area, we’ve begun to see a turnaround in the fall market with an increase in buyer demand and a boost in sales. Greater Vancouver has yet to catch up,” noted Soper.
“The higher cost of living in these regions continues to result in residents migrating to other parts of the country, offset by newcomers who continually choose these cities upon arrival in Canada. Alberta continues to record population growth – made up in large part by inter-provincial migration from Ontario and British Columbia – while gains in Atlantic Canada have stalled since the pandemic rush to the Maritimes.”
Forecast
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previously upgraded forecast has been revised down to reflect current market conditions, specifically in the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, which recorded lower-than-anticipated activity through the spring and summer months.
“The market recovery, albeit uneven across the country, is well underway in a majority of markets. While we may not see significant price appreciation in the typically-slower fourth quarter of this year, we believe our previous forecast will come to fruition in the anticipated early spring market of 2025.”
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Toronto Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 0.7 per cent year over year to $1,155,800 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA decreased 2.9 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.6 per cent year over year to $1,421,000 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium dipped 0.4 per cent to $722,200 during the same period.
“Activity in the third quarter was muted overall. The slower-than-expected spring market gave way to a soft start to fall in Toronto and the GTA, although the tide began to turn in mid-September. While inventory levels continued to rise and the average days on market sat higher than usual, prices came down only slightly in parts of the region in Q3,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “This indicates that while sellers have come off the sidelines faster than buyers, they’re not desperate to sell.”
In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 2.3 per cent year over year to $1,128,900 in the third quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home declined 1.3 per cent year over year to $1,672,400, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.2 per cent to $682,800.
“Trends in Toronto’s condo market have been marching to a different beat, compared to other property segments of late. A wave of new units has hit the market amid a near-record number of completions this year. And, with some investors offloading rental units that have become too expensive to carry, prices have softened. This could spell opportunity for first-time buyers, with borrowing rates on the decline and new 30-year amortization legislation set to come into effect that will ease the burden of monthly carrying costs,” noted Yolevski.
“Looking ahead, as we move further into the fall market and lending rates continue to ease, sales activity and prices will start to edge upward modestly, and housing inventory will get consumed. I believe Toronto, along with most of the country, is set to see a brisk spring housing market in 2025.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Greater Montreal Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 5.2 per cent year over year to $605,400 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 1.0 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 7.1 per cent year over year to $691,500 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium posted a more modest increase of 4.0 per cent to $467,700 during the same period.
“Despite three Bank of Canada rate cuts, we have yet to see a buyer rush. On the one hand, buyers are standing by, confident that further rate cuts are imminent and will create a more opportune time to buy. On the other hand, sellers are fine-tuning their strategies, counting on a wave of motivated buyers in the next few months,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president, business development, Royal LePage. “The Greater Montreal Area real estate market is performing well, with healthy growth in activity and prices, considering that Canada’s other two major markets are stagnating.”
With another announcement by the Bank of Canada due on October 23rd, additional pent-up demand is expected to be released into the market. According to the latest predictions by economists, October will bring the fourth and penultimate drop in the key lending rate for 2024.
“The dilemma that seems to be keeping buyers awake at night is whether to jump in now before prices go up due to higher demand, or keep waiting and take advantage of even more attractive mortgage rates,” St-Pierre added. “We’re already seeing an uptick in activity, which began in September.”
In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $732,900 in the third quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.1 per cent to $1,147,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.4 per cent to $570,700.
St-Pierre welcomes the federal government’s action to improve access to home ownership for first-time buyers by extending the amortization period on mortgages to 30 years. However, this measure is likely to boost real estate demand and property prices.
“The housing affordability issue is a top priority for many, and we owe it to ourselves as a society to provide solutions for future generations who will be faced with the realities of a higher cost of living. That said, these new measures raise the age-old question: what impact will they have on real estate demand in terms of rising property prices in Canada in the context of a chronic housing shortage? In the short term, these measures are likely to fuel existing demand and drive up prices. However, in the long term, this easing of mortgage rules will help many first-time buyers access home ownership and build wealth.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Greater Vancouver
The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased a modest 0.5 per cent to $1,233,900 year over year in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.4 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 0.4 per cent year over year to $1,754,500 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.2 per cent to $768,600 during the same period.
“The Greater Vancouver market has remained relatively steady through the third quarter, with September showing similar patterns to the summer months. We didn’t see a significant bump in activity and prices dipped just slightly compared to the second quarter,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “The slow activity across all segments can largely be attributed to buyers sitting on the fence waiting for further interest rate reductions, without any real urgency to make a move just yet.”
Ryalls noted that the detached home segment in particular continues to experience weaker demand, and remains firmly in buyer territory today.
“Interest rates are anticipated to continue their downward trend, and while the cuts so far haven’t sparked a surge in activity, a more substantial drop – a 50 basis point decrease – could have a more noticeable impact on the market. Many potential buyers are waiting for the bottom before making their move,” added Ryalls. “With inventory continuing to grow, this is an optimal environment for those who are ready to buy – prices are holding flat and there are more properties to choose from.”
In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 0.6 per cent year over year to $1,409,800 in the third quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.1 per cent to $2,244,400, while the median price of a condominium remained virtually flat, increasing 0.2 per cent to $839,600.
“Between now and the end of the year, I expect activity to remain fairly flat. However, Vancouver’s market trends tend to shift quickly, and if buyer urgency and activity reverse course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in prices as well.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Ottawa
The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 1.6 per cent year over year to $775,100 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained virtually unchanged, decreasing 0.3 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8 per cent year over year to $894,400 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased modestly by 1.0 per cent to $400,300 during the same period.
“At the end of the summer, the Ottawa real estate market had approximately three months worth of inventory, teetering between a balanced and a seller’s market. Properties tend to stay online for a little over a month these days, which signals a healthy marketplace for both buyers and sellers,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record and president, Royal LePage Team Realty. “Home prices have continued to hold steady in recent months as sellers stick with their listing strategy; they remain confident that they will secure the price they want, even if they have to wait. Buyers are still hunting for a bargain, and are comfortable taking their time to find the property that best suits their needs. Those who are under a time constraint are moving because they have to – many others continue to wait until borrowing rates become more affordable.”
Ralph noted that new mortgage legislation is generating some buzz in the market, making first-time buyers more optimistic. Busy open houses and an increase in showing requests proves consumers’ confidence in the trajectory of the market is improving.
“We expect home prices to trend upward slightly throughout the rest of the year as new borrowing rules improve affordability for first-time buyers,” said Ralph. “Rising prices could be exacerbated if an election is called this year. Whenever there is a changeover in government, the Ottawa housing market tends to react more markedly than other major cities.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Quebec City
The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 10.5 per cent year over year to $388,600 in the third quarter of 2024. This represents the highest year-over-year price increase in Canada in Q3, and the highest price gain among the report’s major regions for the second consecutive quarter. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained virtually flat, increasing 0.4 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.0 per cent year over year to $413,400 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 14.5 per cent to $291,100 during the same period.
Historically, Quebec City’s real estate market has rarely stood out on a provincial or national scale. Due to the stability of its labour market, which is mainly driven by the provincial civil service, demand for real estate has rarely led to major price surges.
“Overall, the province’s markets have been relatively unaffected by the post-pandemic correction in real estate prices, compared to Ontario and British Columbia. Where declines did occur, they were slight and short-lived,” said Michèle Fournier, vice-president and certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “In Quebec City, the real estate correction simply never materialized. Instead, local and out-of-town demand continued to fuel rising prices without tiring, until late September. Now, buyers seem to have taken a breather, awaiting a possible further boost from the Bank of Canada with a rate cut this autumn, before repositioning themselves in the market.”
This pause in activity is likely to be short-lived. With interest rates continuing to fall, and the federal government providing an additional leg-up by extending the mortgage amortization period for first-time buyers by a further five years, activity is expected to pick up quickly.
“We view this initiative positively, since young buyers need additional assistance more than ever to be able to access a first home, even if this support will increase the interest portion of their mortgage bill,” said Fournier. “However, this initiative raises concerns about the impact on a real estate market characterized by high demand and limited supply. I think we’re in for a very busy start to the year, particularly in the entry-level property market, which will be highly coveted by first-time buyers.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 9.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Calgary
The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 6.9 per cent year over year to $698,700 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased a modest 0.7 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.7 per cent year over year to $799,200 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.2 per cent to $274,100 during the same period.
“Calgary’s real estate market saw a slight uptick in activity following the most recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, just as the fall market got underway. We’re seeing more inventory come onto the market, especially in the $700,000-and-up segment – many sellers who pulled their properties off the market in August re-listed in September to capitalize on the fall market momentum,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “While this hasn’t fully converted to sales just yet, agents are certainly staying busy, which suggests more transactions will occur in the months ahead.”
Lyall noted that competition in the lower end of the market remains tight and some homes are attracting multiple offers. While the region remains in a seller’s market, conditions are gradually shifting toward more balance.
“Looking ahead, we expect prices to remain fairly stable through the remainder of 2024. There is potential for modest growth if further interest rate cuts occur. I expect the region will stay in a seller’s market right through the spring across most price points, particularly with continued demand for lower-priced homes.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Edmonton
The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 5.4 per cent year over year to $456,300 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.3 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.7 per cent year over year to $498,900 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.1 per cent to $201,000 during the same period.
“Edmonton’s real estate market is on track to have one of the most productive years on record. We had an extraordinarily busy summer. Typically, activity dips in July and August, but this year we saw a steady stream of sales right through the summer months. And, it looks like that momentum is being carried into the fall,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Inventory remains very tight – among the lowest levels we’ve seen in nearly two decades – as buyer demand continues to rise, driven in large part by first-time buyers from other cities and provinces relocating to the region. Our healthy job market and access to nature are a huge draw.”
Shearer noted that while sales remain strong, the slow and steady pace of the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts has helped to keep price gains in check.
“Affordability remains a challenge, especially for those purchasing their first home with no equity to leverage. The gradual easing of borrowing rates is beginning to make an impact, and will continue to do so, but we have yet to see a dramatic boost in prices as a result,” added Shearer. “While consumer confidence is up overall, buyers remain cautious and many are waiting for more listings to come online. Activity should begin to plateau in the coming weeks. I expect a strong spring is on the horizon, especially with further rate cuts expected.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Halifax
The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 2.2 per cent year over year to $510,100 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 0.7 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.7 per cent year over year to $574,000 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.0 per cent to $422,900 during the same period.
“The recent cuts to the overnight lending rate have yet to meaningfully stir up activity in the housing market. Home sales in late summer were quite slow, which is to be expected that time of year. Only in the last few weeks as we’ve entered the early fall market have we seen an uptick in inquiries. Despite this quieter pace, buying and selling activity remains up compared to 2023 levels,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Housing inventory continues to rise throughout the Halifax region, but not enough to meet the backlog of demand. Competition for homes in the lower end of the market remains tight, while those shopping in the move-up segment have the advantage of more listings to choose from. More properties are needed to satisfy the high demand from first-time buyers.”
Honsberger noted that population growth in the Atlantic region has slowed to 2015 levels, ending the wave of migration that defined the pandemic real estate boom in 2020 and 2021. This has helped to soften market conditions for locals.
“We are anticipating a busy fall market. The new 30-year mortgage amortization rules announced by the federal government, in addition to further rate cuts expected by the Bank of Canada, will help to keep the market steady throughout the coming months and into the spring of 2025,” added Honsberger. “Home prices will start to show upward movement when more move-up buyers jump back into the market, freeing up entry-level inventory for eager first-time purchasers.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Winnipeg
The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 4.4 per cent year over year to $402,600 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained virtually flat, decreasing 0.2 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $441,000 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.2 per cent to $264,400 during the same period.
“Buying and selling activity in Winnipeg remained brisk throughout the late summer months and heading into the early fall; home sales are up compared to this time in 2023. Available inventory is down compared to typical levels for this time of year, which could result in steeper price increases in the months ahead as momentum builds heading into the fall,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “The recent cuts made to interest rates, though they have improved consumer confidence, have not had a material impact on activity just yet. Rather, much of our market demand continues to be fuelled by a strong local economy and a growing population driven by new Canadians, as well as residents from Toronto and Vancouver who have relocated to Winnipeg in search of more affordable housing.”
Froese added that new housing starts have improved from last year’s levels as borrowing rates come down, giving builders some much needed financial relief. However, new development remains short of what is needed to meet current market demand.
“We expect activity will continue to outperform 2023 levels for the remainder of the year,” said Froese. “Thanks to a combination of falling interest rates and new mortgage incentives announced by the federal government, buyer demand will only continue to grow heading into the new year. Given the amount of demand that will continue to come off of the sidelines as well, now is an ideal time for sellers to enter the market.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
Regina
The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 5.0 per cent year over year to $387,100 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased modestly by 0.6 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.6 per cent year over year to $424,600 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium remained virtually flat, increasing 0.2 per cent to $220,300 during the same period.
“We continue to see robust sales activity in our housing market, as demonstrated by frequent bidding wars and homes selling over the asking price. Demand far exceeds the number of new listings, which is keeping prices on an upward trajectory,” said Shaheen Zareh, sales representative, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “All of this demand predates the recent cuts to the overnight lending rate – new immigrants, investors and buyers from more expensive cities in Canada have been major drivers of activity for some time. Though Regina has not historically had a strong condo market, we also continue to see momentum build in this segment, especially as young buyers seek affordable housing options.”
Zareh added that Regina’s rental market is experiencing strong demand as well, particularly for duplex and low-rise housing types. The majority of development in the region is currently in the rental segment. To prevent an overflow of supply, builders have kept a consistent pace when bringing new rental product to the market.
“Based on current conditions, Regina will no doubt record a strong fall market performance. With additional interest rate cuts likely on the cards in the coming months, we expect buyer demand to increase as their borrowing power expands. This will put further upward pressure on home prices, unless we see a material increase in supply.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024
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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc.
For further information, please contact:
Kaleigh Ambrose
Hill & Knowlton on behalf of Royal LePage
kaleigh.ambrose@hillandknowlton.com
(416) 413-4624
[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.
[2] Federal government announces landmark adjustments to mortgage rules for first-time buyers in Canada, September 17, 2024
[3] OSFI to drop mortgage stress test for uninsured borrowers who switch lenders at renewal, October 3, 2024
[4] Gen Zs and young millennials still believe in home ownership, and they’re willing to make sacrifices to achieve it, August 22, 2024
[5] Canadian Consumers are Regaining Confidence, September 25, 2024
[6] Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4¼%, September 4, 2024
[7] Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of September 4, 2024, September 18, 2024
