Persistent demand coupled with low inventory drives 2022 home price forecast higher to 15%

Seller’s market conditions continue as we move into the spring market, despite rising prices, further expected interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty

First quarter highlights:

National aggregate home price soars 25.1% year-over-year in first quarter of 2022 – highest Q1 gain on record
Kingston, Ontario, posts highest year-over-year aggregate and detached home price gains in Canada for the second straight quarter
Four markets in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region report median single-family detached home prices above $1 million for first time
Early signs of moderation appear as some urban markets unveil improved conditions for buyers
Promising new federal and provincial policies aimed at tackling housing availability and affordability not expected to provide relief in 2022

TORONTO, April 19, 2022 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate^[1] price of a home in Canada increased 25.1 per cent year-over-year to $856,900 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. As strong buyer demand continues to outpace supply in almost every market from coast to coast, Royal LePage is forecasting continued strong seller’s market conditions this spring.

“Entering 2022, we had anticipated a strong first half, and moderating real estate markets thereafter. Call it buyer fatigue or easing demand, these periods of uncomfortably high home price appreciation do run their course. We are seeing the first signs of moderation in some regions, as more inventory is becoming available and competition eases slightly,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The first quarter of the year was so strong, however, that we are bumping up our 2022 outlook. And, home prices will continue to climb in the months ahead as a result of our relentless low supply-high demand imbalance.”

Soper added that while the Bank of Canada announcement of a 0.5 per cent interest rate increase will be a drag on demand, its impact will be relatively minor compared to the impact of sharply higher home prices. The central bank has indicated that it intends to continue to increase the overnight rate through 2023.

“It is worth noting that most Canadians with higher loan to value mortgages have successfully passed the stringent federal requirements of the OSFI mortgage stress test – they have proven that they can manage significantly higher rate increases than we anticipate they will see,” said Soper.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 26.7 per cent year-over-year to $906,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 19.7 per cent year-over-year to $612,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

While some properties were attracting fewer bids, listings in popular neighbourhoods that are priced appropriately are still commanding multiple offers and selling above the list price.

“There is a notable difference in buyer sentiment and behaviour today,” Soper continued. “Consumer confidence is being challenged as the lingering impact of the pandemic and worrisome geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe raises questions about the stickiness of inflation and the trajectory of interest rates. Yet, while there may be fewer bids on accurately priced properties, housing supply is so tight that multiple-offer scenarios remain the norm in most communities.”

In the first quarter of 2022, four cities in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region – Barrie, Cambridge, Kitchener-Waterloo and Oshawa – recorded median single-family detached home prices that crossed the million-dollar threshold for the first time, as Torontonians continue to search for affordable homes within a reasonable commuting distance while working partially or fully remotely.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 15.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Open bidding

On April 6th, 2022, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced it would introduce a pilot project this summer in select markets across Canada to display real-time tracking of offers on REALTOR.ca listings.

“Royal LePage supports efforts to improve transparency within the industry and commends CREA on their planned initiatives, which are intended to bring additional information to consumers engaged in the home buying process,” said Soper. “However, politicians who hope that a simple change to the property purchase process will somehow make housing more affordable will be sorely disappointed. Jurisdictions where open bidding or auctions are much more common have experienced exactly the same run up in home values during the pandemic. The affordability challenge will see progress when the housing shortage crisis eases, and not before.”

Federal and Provincial Housing Policy

On April 7th, the federal government announced its 2022 budget that includes more than $10 billion to support housing affordability along with demand-side policies. The federal government has acknowledged that 3.5 million new homes are required by 2031 to keep up with demand.

“Access to suitable shelter is one of the great social challenges of our time. I am pleased to see it addressed in the federal budget, however the budget requires significant participation from provincial and municipal governments to hit its target to provide housing for current demand as well as future demand from new household formation and immigration,” said Soper. “By providing municipalities with funding to accelerate planning and delivery processes, the government is meaningfully helping the process overall, which is a welcomed step in the right direction.”

In regards to the temporary two-year ban on foreign buyers, Royal LePage does not expect the policy to provide material relief to potential homebuyers, as this group does not make up a significant portion of homeowners in Canada. In addition, recreational properties are exempt from the ban.

Ontario

The Ontario government tabled a new housing bill last month with several initiatives aimed at speeding up municipal approval processes for development and allowing more four-to-six-storey residential buildings. The province also updated the rules of its existing Non-Resident Speculation Tax, increasing the tax from 15 to 20 per cent and expanding its reach from the Golden Horseshoe and Southern Ontario to the entire province.

“While new policies aimed at improving real estate market conditions for buyers will take years to produce results, I commend the Ontario government for taking action to increase supply through needed densification. In Toronto, this will give young homebuyers hope that they will be able to purchase a property in the future,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Potential homeowners should not expect relief from the tax increase applied to non-residents, as foreign buyers make up a small percentage of the total market.”

British Columbia

B.C.’s Minister of Finance, Selina Robinson, recently announced the Homebuyer Protection Period; new legislation that, when implemented, will allow homebuyers a cooling off period, during which they may reconsider their offer, secure financing and obtain a home inspection.

“The new legislation is causing a lot of uncertainty among industry professionals and consumers. With few details revealed, and no clear indication of how this policy will be implemented or monitored and by whom, it is difficult to predict what impact this will have on the market,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “We believe that with the collaboration of industry leaders, the province would have been able to devise a policy that better serves Canadians during one of the most important decisions of their lives.”

Ryalls added that the cooling off period stands to create more of a supply backlog, and that a mandatory pre-offer period allowing buyers time to conduct due diligence would be more beneficial, as suggested by the British Columbia Real Estate Association.

Nova Scotia

The province released new tax measures within its budget that included a transfer tax of 5 per cent of the property’s value for non-residents who did not move to the province within six months of the closing date. Also included is a property tax of $2 per $100 of assessed value of residential properties owned by non-residents. This will not apply to buildings with more than three units or long-term rentals tenanted to Nova Scotians.

“While we do need a supply solution for Nova Scotians, it’s disappointing that after years of investing significant tax dollars into attracting people and businesses to come to the province, we would make such an unwelcoming gesture to Canadians,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Many of the affected group are cottage owners from Ontario who have been enjoying and spending money in Nova Scotia for years.”

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area increased 27.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,269,900 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 29.7 per cent to $1,588,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 21.7 per cent to $764,200 during the same period.

“Demand for housing in Toronto and the surrounding region remains strong. Despite a slight increase in new listings in recent weeks, competition is still very tight among buyers looking to enter the market ahead of further interest rate hikes,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “The condo market is particularly competitive, as some former residents are returning to the city due to return-to-office mandates and first-time buyers looking to enter the market at a more affordable price point.”

Yolevski noted that the number of offers that listings receive appears to be decreasing in some areas, although inventory remains at historic lows, continuing to spur buyer competition.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 20.9 per cent year-over-year to $1,309,800 in the first quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 22.8 per cent to $1,823,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 17.9 per cent to $786,700.

“While new policies aimed at improving real estate market conditions for buyers will take years to produce results, I commend the Ontario government for taking action to increase supply through needed densification. In Toronto, this will give young homebuyers hope that they will be able to purchase a property in the future,” said Yolevski. “Potential homeowners should not expect relief from the tax increase applied to non-residents, as foreign buyers make up a small percentage of the total market.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 16.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 18.5 per cent year-over-year to $571,400 in the first quarter of 2022. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 19.8 per cent to $636,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 17.7 per cent to $446,700 during the same period.

“We are currently feeling the cumulative effects of a chronic inventory shortage,” said Dominic St-Pierre, Vice-President and General Manager of Royal LePage, Quebec region. “Buyers who have failed to get their hands on a property over the past two years continue to prioritize home ownership. Significantly reduced inventory has changed consumer behaviour in the property buying process. Traditionally, sellers put their home up for sale before starting their search for properties. Today, they are trying to buy their next home before their current property is put on the market, which further amplifies the inventory shortage.”

To overcome this challenge, St-Pierre recommends that sellers, with the help of their broker, set a longer occupancy period, allowing them enough time to find a property that suits them.

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 11.7 per cent year-over-year to $692,500 in the first quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 14.3 per cent to $1,062,800, but saw its first quarterly decline since the onset of the pandemic, while the median price of a condominium increased 10.7 per cent to $530,900.

“Remote work has transformed the real estate market over the past two years,” said St-Pierre. “Once the epicenter of the Quebec real estate market, Montreal’s city centre has experienced lower median price increases than suburban areas for six consecutive quarters. This urban sprawl has particularly favoured the province’s suburbs and recreational markets, with buyers willing to find property much further away than before to access the quality of life they seek. It is likely that as immigration levels continue to grow, real estate demand for the city’s central neighbourhoods will pick up.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 12.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 18.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,368,600 in the first quarter of 2022. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.7 per cent to $1,870,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 20.4 per cent to $828,400 during the same period.

“While the supply of listings is beginning to increase, it is happening at a very slow pace. Meanwhile, demand has subsided slightly,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Greater Vancouver remains in a strong seller’s market, with many listings being absorbed quickly. These market conditions are self-perpetuating. Lack of supply causes hesitation in sellers who hold off listing their home until they can buy.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 14.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,478,100 in the first quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 21.7 per cent to $2,665,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 7.1 per cent to $835,600.

Ryalls noted that there has been a noticeable shift in buyer behaviour recently, as a combination of sustained price increases, rising interest rates and the introduction of the B.C. government’s cooling off period legislation is giving would-be buyers some pause.

“The new legislation is causing a lot of uncertainty among industry professionals and consumers. With few details revealed, and no clear indication of how this policy will be implemented or monitored and by whom, it is difficult to predict what impact this will have on the market,” added Ryalls. “We believe that with the collaboration of industry leaders, the province would have been able to devise a policy that better serves Canadians during one of the most important decisions of their lives.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 15.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 19.9 per cent year-over-year to $809,200 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.0 per cent to $947,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 9.8 per cent to $432,500 during the same period.

“Ottawa’s real estate market remained strong in the first quarter of the year, and I expect this trend will persist as we enter the spring season,” said Rick Eisert, broker and manager, Royal LePage Team Realty. “A shortage of inventory and increased demand in the region continues to drive price appreciation, resulting in a highly competitive environment for buyers.”

Eisert added that demand is largely driven by migration to the city, as Ottawa has become an increasingly appealing destination due to its strong job market and vibrant city culture. However, first-time homebuyers are facing increasing difficulty purchasing in the region due to high demand and escalating home prices as a result of low inventory.

“First-time buyers are finding it challenging to navigate the market with such strong competition. They are opting to move into condominiums or to areas outside of the city, such as Almonte or Carleton Place, where properties are more affordable. However, home prices in these areas are also increasing rapidly,” Eisert added.

Eisert expects a strong spring market as more inventory becomes available, noting that there are numerous developments underway which may help satisfy some of the pent-up demand in the region.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 13.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 13.3 per cent year-over-year to $612,000 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 18.5 per cent to $699,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 5.8 per cent to $232,800 during the same period.

“The spring market started early and is now in full force,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “While multiple-offer scenarios and homes selling above the asking price have been the norm for many cities in Canada since the summer of 2020, Calgary’s housing market has continued to make healthy and consistent gains following a pre-pandemic recessionary period. As we enter the spring market, affordability remains attractive to both locals and buyers from across Canada.”

Lyall noted that a significant portion of demand, especially for single-family homes, is coming from Ontario buyers, including young families who are choosing to lay down roots in Calgary.

“Calgary’s condominium segment has seen a rush of new demand since the start of this year, as supply in the single-family segment dwindles and prices continue to climb,” said Lyall. “Condos are an attractive option for those looking to enter the market at a more affordable price point, and I expect sales will continue to rise in the coming months.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased 6.2 per cent year-over-year to $452,000 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.4 per cent to $494,800, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.5 per cent to $201,900 during the same period.

“Edmonton’s housing market has remained strong throughout the first quarter of the year, with demand continuing to outpace supply in the region,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “The city’s thriving job market and relative affordability compared to larger urban centres is driving demand from young families looking to move up in the market.”

Shearer added that Edmonton is also seeing demand from investors who saw their equity increase in other regions of the country and are now targeting Western Canada, placing further upward pressure on the city’s housing market.

“With increased demand from out-of-province buyers, coupled with the ongoing supply shortage, I anticipate a brisk spring market with housing prices continuing to rise in the region,” Shearer added.

Shearer noted that he does not expect rising mortgage rates to have a significant impact on the housing market in Edmonton, as consumers still have affordable financing and pricing options in the province.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 14.5 per cent year-over-year to $509,500 in the first quarter of 2022. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 16.7 per cent to $569,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 21.2 per cent to $411,000 during the same period.

“We are seeing the typical spring increase in listings but properties are being purchased after only a short time on the market. For buyers who are hoping to be successful this spring, it’s important to know what you are looking for so you can move fast,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “While supply remains low, we will continue to see price gains.”

“While we do need a supply solution for Nova Scotians, it’s disappointing that after years of investing significant tax dollars into attracting people and businesses to come to the province, we would make such an unwelcoming gesture to Canadians,” said Honsberger. “Many of the affected group are cottage owners from Ontario who have been enjoying and spending money in Nova Scotia for years.”

Honsberger added that in addition to a lack of inventory to meet new demand from interprovincial migration, there isn’t enough for local buyers.

“The opportunities for Halifax to thrive are only bounded by our low supply. The region wasn’t ready for this heightened level of buyer demand but it’s never too late to take action and build more homes,” said Honsberger.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 12.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 16.3 per cent year-over-year to $387,900 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.4 per cent to $425,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.4 per cent to $243,900 during the same period.

“This is the first time Winnipeg has seen the typical single-family home median price surpass $400,000,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Competition remains very tight for buyers. The city is still experiencing a shortage of inventory, which is putting upward pressure on prices, and buyers are feeling the pressure to make a purchase before interest rates go up further. March set a new record with 67 per cent of homes selling for over list price, which is up 14 per cent from March of 2021.”

Froese noted that demand for condominiums continues to be strong, as entry-level buyers look to get on the real estate ladder any way they can.

“For many people, condos are the sweet spot in regards to affordability and location. They are more affordable than a detached or a semi, and in most cases are close to the downtown core, which is most desirable for young professionals and those heading into the office more frequently. I expect this segment will continue to see strong demand through the spring and summer months,” said Froese.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 11.8 per cent year-over-year to $361,200 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 13.4 per cent to $392,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.0 per cent to $203,900 during the same period.

“In recent weeks, we’ve seen a slight uptick in new listings, which is expected as the weather gets better. However, supply remains far too low to keep up with growing demand,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “There is a shortage of inventory across all property types, which is causing a bottleneck for first-time buyers. Without sufficient supply of move-up properties for sellers to transition into, entry-level homes are not being freed up for new buyers.”

Duggleby noted that activity remained relatively flat last quarter, although he expects to see a brisk spring market as new inventory is released.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 7.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2022

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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 19,000 real estate professionals in over 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

For further information, please contact:

Meghan Edwards
North Strategic on behalf of Royal LePage
meghan.edwards@northstrategic.com
(416) 300-5720

^[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

Persistent demand coupled with low inventory drives 2022 home price forecast higher to 15%

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